Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Taiwan before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6219a8271764af7c7297ecd8379478f86fbb25e1ab6a3f92d78e66c2013a6ab5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 2,779$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 12c | 2,279$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.75 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked No | 18c | 1,540$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 79c | 1,390$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.12 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 20c | 1,023$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.49 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked No | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 20c | 876.87$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.12 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 16c | 575.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.85 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…df89backed No | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked No | 24c | 417.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 69c | 396.2$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.42 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 74c | 387.91$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.99 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…5338backed No | 14c | 332.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 14c | 310$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed No | 11c | 290$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 7c | 250$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 29c | 239$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 70c | 175.7$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…099cbacked No | 17c | 175.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed No | 35c | 173.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 129.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…43dcbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 78c | 110.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…e31ebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…5e08backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92a3…f796backed No | 18c | 99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…28bdbacked No | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 15c | 83.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 79.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 17c | 61.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fb…4064backed Yes | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7bca…a74cbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…4910backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9d…24b3backed Yes | 79c | 25.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Taiwan before June?this page
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Bangladesh before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Cambodia before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on India before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Indonesia before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Japan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Laos before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Pakistan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Africa before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Korea before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Switzerland before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Vietnam before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on the European Union before June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.