Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Japan before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33085df7b4c5b27cea680625ed033192fc72c31065b038a87432cd37b65c2688
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,734
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d37…f4a4backed No | 0c | 9,593$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 26c | 999.96$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed No | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.86 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 13c | 803.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked No | 14c | 729.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 18c | 607.72$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.51 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…b088backed No | 17c | 585.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 12c | 515.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…89cfbacked No | 12c | 500$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf392…df89backed No | 22c | 499.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 74c | 446.92$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.87 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…5338backed No | 11c | 368.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 20c | 337.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 67c | 288.27$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.78 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 65c | 247.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e4…be2abacked Yes | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 211.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f8…4910backed No | 5c | 202.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…adcabacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -55%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…ddfbbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +48%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f34…aadabacked No | 10c | 190.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba2…099cbacked No | 11c | 175.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 75c | 146$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 14c | 139.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 20c | 125.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 77c | 93.23$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 34c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…85fabacked No | 18c | 83.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…f631backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79b…c37cbacked No | 34c | 36.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…f359backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f7…071cbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 60c | 22.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Japan before June?this page
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Bangladesh before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Cambodia before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on India before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Indonesia before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Laos before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Pakistan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Africa before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Korea before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Switzerland before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Taiwan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Vietnam before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on the European Union before June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.