TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on India before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,476
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$38,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,476 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d37…f4a4backed No1c13,672$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.98828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes76c3,545$2,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.268450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No26c3,221$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.888127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f34…aadabacked No2c2,445$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes75c1,657$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.89549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No22c1,200$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2606131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes72c1,079$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.6741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes73c450$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.234654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f29…dd03backed No31c415.5$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc032…6668backed No16c385.35$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-84%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a2…6a88backed No27c370$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick50cpaid-54%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No27c367.64$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2637533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c352.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes71c351.3$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.317452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x746e…4238backed No32c316.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002572%18 W · 7 L+7.2wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+69.7%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes71c312.68$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.682157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes80c300$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.181136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…e2a9backed Yes74c286.59$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes70c222$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.0420446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No29c210.69$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.111538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes71c200$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf636…b088backed No27c200$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick42cpaid-47.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes75c187.11$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.0615646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No29c144$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7616854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes72c138.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.473030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No26c118.32$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8152…618cbacked No27c118$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.331225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No31c105.45$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.438817%15 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdccc…3ac3backed Yes76c105.26$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.262552%13 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3316144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2617544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319535.8%34 W · 61 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No27c85$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9511336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No14c78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.921,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.254544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes77c73.4$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Yes75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.671650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2378…a059backed Yes77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.942245.5%10 W · 12 L-5.3wins-0.24per pick70cpaid-36%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51650%8 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dbc…7610backed No63c48.19$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5950%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbaad…a862backed Yes71c44$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes70c41$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4613455.2%74 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5659…5d66backed No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Yes70c35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No33c31$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2332626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.33154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa84e…82f2backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8c…6250backed Yes71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa844…a551backed Yes76c19.84$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.842147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes64c17.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.34257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.