TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Korea before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,939
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,939 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d37…f4a4backed No1c15,265$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.29828.5%7 W · 75 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes77c4,027$3,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.39549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes77c3,969$3,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.3441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No27c3,896$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.998127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes79c1,947$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.578450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No19c1,841$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.486131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No23c1,763$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.8837533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No26c1,200$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c1,020$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.191,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No8c950.73$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8317238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No33c789$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3716854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes76c665.1$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.4237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6274…ff19backed No15c631.58$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes74c581.15$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.117452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Yes67c552.21$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.61850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d5b…022dbacked Yes70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf392…df89backed No21c499.99$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-78%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No32c397.5$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.211336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe5a2…6a88backed No31c324$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.441323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick50cpaid-54%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4d1b…1419backed Yes75c320$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802161.9%13 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ab5…ba4abacked Yes69c317.75$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No27c280.58$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.539546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No23c267.34$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.211,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No15c252$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.811538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No20c240$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.615924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed No10c231$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.96128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes68c220$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.43540%14 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed No16c159.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.73450%17 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No24c120$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No19c120$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.630319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb295…d1e7backed No18c112.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8152…618cbacked No30c101.18$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.111225%3 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-42.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3016144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3317544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked No27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.924221.4%9 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick29cpaid+2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4580…abf8backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+72.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes79c93.41$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4513167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes68c93$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.964257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0db9…d97cbacked Yes77c89.69$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.29862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Yes77c87.19$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.151650%8 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+45.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No23c80.4$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3356733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6713…3878backed No29c80$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a3d…615ebacked No24c78$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.732817.9%5 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-59.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes75c71$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No31c64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.844544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes74c61.53$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No25c57.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3414135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6851…79cbbacked No19c55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb408…f21bbacked Yes73c54.79$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.79875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.744111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.512545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dc5…e315backed Yes69c31.88$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+133.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes80c31.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.383043.3%13 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…5d66backed No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+65.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a4…0e62backed Yes69c29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.992138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes77c21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.98256.1%46 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc813…44dabacked Yes77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.61540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…a39fbacked Yes79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-58.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8bd8…7eaabacked Yes65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick44cpaid+68.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8849…eb2abacked Yes67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes68c17.86$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.713315.2%5 W · 28 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-67.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe76f…8e8dbacked Yes69c15.19$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.