TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on the European Union before June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$164,385
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$168,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,385 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x354f…03ebbacked Yes64c56,612$36,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,380.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick67cpaid+50.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fc2…3092backed No36c56,612$20,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,380.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No15c6,015$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883.6515646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes64c4,205$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.248450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No35c3,570$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,249.567354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes75c2,657$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.2241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes58c1,912$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$795.2217850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes65c1,692$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.312653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcea8…d59ebacked No34c1,456$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No46c1,455$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.758331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No40c1,400$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes77c1,393$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.9418445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No19c1,283$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes71c1,182$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.083450%17 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes66c1,140$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.24654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No6c1,100$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6313525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes58c1,044$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.0220446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ea…9fc0backed No2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes65c835.1$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.282147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+71.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes65c750$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked No2c725$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.156041.7%25 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe145…519abacked No47c637.37$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed No47c614$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.27051.4%36 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8b87…e76dbacked No34c584.05$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-48.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes67c501$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.339549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc2e…2358backed No37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b83…7df4backed Yes69c493.5$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fd9…0145backed No37c476.93$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x956f…e875backed No48c444$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.12728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes65c433.34$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.817633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No37c430$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.114125.5%36 W · 105 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5943…2ef2backed Yes53c430$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.13348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a36…0d0dbacked Yes51c361.3$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.841060%6 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.24per pick36cpaid+31.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No6c317.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed No49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1472864.3%18 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+58.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf3…8f27backed No28c295.85$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.846131.1%19 W · 42 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No23c290$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6837740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5a2…6a88backed No36c278$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.081323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.26per pick50cpaid-54%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x89ed…52d3backed Yes69c250$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6a…5338backed No21c240.48$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50100%0 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdc7f…ac7fbacked No48c239.58$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+43.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed Yes65c237.13$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8311538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc5a…1ca2backed No42c236.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed No16c227$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.323933.3%13 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes65c215.59$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.841,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No36c200$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7211336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac26…d2b7backed Yes64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+23.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No9c186.24$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4930319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No51c163$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.338355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes51c133$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.171566.7%10 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+46.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2277…8145backed No38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-79.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xae38…f877backed No50c126$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c124.92$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed Yes73c122.86$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1413167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No40c100.1$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4815924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf454…7eccbacked Yes56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.33644.4%16 W · 20 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8079…b9cbbacked Yes68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-44.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked No48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4819436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdba2…099cbacked No26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes64c70$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No49c64.03$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2611612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes36c64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.9632626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No44c62.96$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.78419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa610…0461backed No35c62.86$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bb…c118backed Yes64c62.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed No16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101225%3 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.139546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba05…f8c0backed No36c56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.164544.4%20 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x169b…30c9backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+25.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc27…f631backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No23c45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes45c40.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.213237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98cc…5fd4backed Yes63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.82450%12 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x26c0…8132backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7975…d3f7backed Yes65c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.253154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes49c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.34257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes64c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.87441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No50c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.53315.2%5 W · 28 L-7.2wins-0.22per pick37cpaid-67.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x2d33…2c30backed Yes53c25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes50c22$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1117544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcba…8ba9backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.814135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79b…c37cbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.