Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Switzerland before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafa071681d587c17290fd143cf4e1764eb22be2a1831adb0572a313b26df5d0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 41c | 1,194$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.55 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 62c | 628.88$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.47 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…022dbacked Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 46c | 399.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 34c | 390$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…4238backed No | 37c | 271.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +7.2wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 74c | 263.61$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 77c | 255.02$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.97 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 30c | 216.2$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Yes | 75c | 210$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +9.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…5338backed No | 26c | 194.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 11c | 188.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 62c | 162.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.9 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 76c | 157.02$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 48c | 155$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 9c | 147.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf8…3632backed No | 36c | 138.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 48c | 97.5$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 75c | 95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 28c | 73.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 71.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…caeebacked Yes | 78c | 61.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked No | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc27…f631backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 42c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…4910backed Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 73c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -7.2wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Switzerland before June?this page
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Bangladesh before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Cambodia before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on China before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on India before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Indonesia before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Japan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Laos before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Pakistan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Africa before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on South Korea before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Taiwan before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Vietnam before June?Yes won
- Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on the European Union before June?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.