TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,109,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,535,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,109,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb75…0252backed No10c285,017$28,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,499.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No2c156,578$2,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,668.3280%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d23…8f86backed No22c100,000$22,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,279.04812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-84%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4518…7180backed No27c47,430$12,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,970.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed No16c33,526$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,499.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes77c29,694$22,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,887.384553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed No8c28,859$2,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,308.86224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid+85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaec…665bbacked No17c26,620$4,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,476.5870%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7408…95b1backed No17c22,230$3,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,730.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fb8…515dbacked No15c20,000$2,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,938.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes77c18,555$14,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,306.6424258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes79c18,433$14,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.692272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66e0…2480backed Yes70c14,861$10,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,451.49633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+136.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No24c12,665$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990.752015%3 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-76.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes75c12,204$9,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,059.78475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked No14c12,160$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,653.65520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-28%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76e4…6cecbacked No19c12,055$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91c7…28ccbacked Yes78c11,978$9,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,633.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed No21c11,442$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,453.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8272…14bbbacked No19c10,883$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.9990%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8caf…ef24backed No3c10,752$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfc7…7ca8backed No26c10,624$2,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,758.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22c9…8ac8backed Yes79c10,491$8,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,182.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…543abacked No18c10,408$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed Yes79c10,113$7,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.94100%4 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+49.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed Yes80c10,088$8,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0572100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes74c9,700$7,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520.723683.3%30 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes80c9,344$7,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c0…6b87backed No42c9,164$3,837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,836.81520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e4b…4e43backed No14c8,959$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.5740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9618…12d1backed No22c8,813$1,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,970.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No1c8,293$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0850%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No22c8,000$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7551353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe533…ab29backed No6c8,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No14c7,830$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.369932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed No15c7,150$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.321822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-56.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbafc…d16fbacked No21c7,043$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No13c7,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940230%0 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe8…0212backed No10c6,947$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28df…4843backed No9c6,897$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No16c6,462$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.6314121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed No64c6,325$4,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0571118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick45cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xba68…ce61backed Yes75c5,852$4,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,481.934100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc2…a9ebbacked Yes69c5,747$3,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,754.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1c…33c1backed No36c5,680$2,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,041.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed Yes61c5,624$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,200.963545.7%16 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28b2…eb4fbacked No18c5,564$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.23545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No19c5,551$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,078.072334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c6d…fa3dbacked No17c5,238$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af7…0ff1backed Yes44c5,120$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,874.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes68c5,120$3,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.544156.1%23 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f0e…12a0backed No2c4,998$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b7…df07backed No18c4,739$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No3c4,422$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.8639429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a03…cf97backed Yes77c4,407$3,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.163100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff98…908ebacked Yes69c4,345$3,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed No6c4,299$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0384…d4efbacked Yes76c4,283$3,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,025.018100%8 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+150.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xadc2…77e0backed No7c4,251$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c1d…fadcbacked No24c4,197$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde32…7b53backed Yes78c4,014$3,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$885.222100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa55…c6aebacked No12c4,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x226a…42dfbacked No18c3,721$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x556d…f658backed No2c3,667$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe384…bc6bbacked No10c3,498$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.013212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2384…3e0bbacked No37c3,485$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.365639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed No11c3,362$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.19147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb35b…fd83backed No45c3,354$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked No22c3,267$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.66560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+250.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked Yes42c3,180$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,836.14633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+78.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes55c3,158$1,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,406.4310625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No15c3,149$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.292817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed No4c3,050$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.57736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed No36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.99825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No14c2,978$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.881643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed Yes67c2,962$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.175100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+81.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x87e0…c8babacked No34c2,925$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x540b…e4e7backed No25c2,876$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.0750%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb31c…c1c3backed No7c2,771$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.7740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed No22c2,754$609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.469413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0513…4e8cbacked No17c2,665$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.850%0 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd251…8e2bbacked No9c2,643$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d2…f302backed No6c2,610$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74b8…17fbbacked No21c2,440$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6548…4ec4backed No8c2,439$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a66…9051backed No6c2,420$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15090%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd72b…8f82backed No10c2,280$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe81f…5c9fbacked No3c2,247$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.41633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-50.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x64c9…5eb9backed No9c2,141$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.39333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0115…5507backed No17c2,114$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b5f…d5b2backed No12c2,100$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc922…bf70backed No25c2,073$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f43…df0dbacked No15c1,942$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c10…eb52backed No53c1,869$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ba1…6c3fbacked No54c1,860$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeafd…b7fbbacked No6c1,833$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d72…cca4backed Yes73c1,750$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1c3…a510backed No26c1,715$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes79c1,613$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.13953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4a1…f6bbbacked Yes65c1,538$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.