TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5b5f…d5b2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
37
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 27, 2026, EDT2133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
Over $25M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.06
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.5
Over $9M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$127
Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.59
Paradex FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$46
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+65.8%+$52.66
Will Infinex launch a token by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$201.09
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+96.1%+$147
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$131.73
Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+346.9%+$346.91
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$407Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+170.3%+$693
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+35.1%+$54.6
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+614.3%+$172
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$91
Over $800M committed to the Monad public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$366.07
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Will Hyperliquid launch a token in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$499Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST-100%-$499.32
Swell airdrop by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$385Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$384.78
Aleo airdrop by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+84.1%+$149.17
All 21 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+27.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+87.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Falcons vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+78.6%+$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+76%+$49.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+26.6%+$53.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pakistan ODI Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 3)backed Sri Lanka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$11.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Tate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Boeing Starliner successfully return to Earth?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2024, EDT-100%-$63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$252
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.