Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32d613df7b4b29243d127e423e3cfb1c3f410b192fb828f207de8dd175cf0fd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $519,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $498,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb63a…4064backed Yes | 2c | 28,204$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.57 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…071ebacked Yes | 1c | 21,905$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.71 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 4c | 21,099$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.64 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 17c | 17,486$2,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.34 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…2a34backed Yes | 1c | 17,376$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 1c | 14,758$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 75c | 12,892$9,679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,212.91 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 34c | 11,087$3,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,714.19 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 4c | 10,630$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.77 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 10,338$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.22 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 2c | 9,397$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.38 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 11c | 8,877$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.62 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 44c | 8,478$3,736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,742.46 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 33c | 8,400$2,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,766.45 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…da0abacked Yes | 3c | 4,070$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…19c0backed Yes | 24c | 4,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4851…1e94backed No | 78c | 3,724$2,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f4…c918backed Yes | 37c | 3,229$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,194.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 27c | 3,170$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 21c | 3,031$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.07 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07a2…3389backed Yes | 3c | 3,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 24c | 2,900$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,203 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 2c | 2,693$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…6bc7backed Yes | 6c | 2,622$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.29 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed Yes | 23c | 2,215$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.93 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9990…cd29backed Yes | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked No | 58c | 2,000$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 11c | 1,779$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.02 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 77c | 1,734$1,334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.09 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…6771backed Yes | 2c | 1,701$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…8ab4backed No | 59c | 1,695$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 30c | 1,620$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.4 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…7f98backed No | 71c | 1,591$1,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…97a5backed No | 75c | 1,536$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…19a0backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…49edbacked Yes | 11c | 1,234$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…fc97backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.66per pick | 9cpaid | +632.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75a9…c2debacked Yes | 18c | 1,100$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…d709backed Yes | 5c | 1,003$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…a21abacked No | 71c | 1,000$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 13c | 949.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed Yes | 55c | 884.43$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 45c | 852.68$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.09 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…d5b2backed Yes | 6c | 810.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa92…0d27backed Yes | 46c | 787.48$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.73 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed Yes | 13c | 760$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 28c | 750$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd02c…769fbacked Yes | 16c | 750$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed Yes | 4c | 700.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes | 4c | 698.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…155abacked Yes | 3c | 645.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc577…1f0bbacked Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59f5…4659backed Yes | 3c | 606.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 43c | 592.63$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d1ccbacked Yes | 17c | 588.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed No | 68c | 588.24$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6886…1682backed Yes | 5c | 550$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…5516backed Yes | 3c | 540.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…65d6backed Yes | 11c | 505.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3869…35c2backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…04cebacked Yes | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd79…9793backed Yes | 6c | 498.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…4060backed Yes | 10c | 484.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…ff2abacked Yes | 11c | 449.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed No | 48c | 420.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.57 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Yes | 62c | 400$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 45c | 385.75$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.72 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 54c | 359.75$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.17 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 11c | 329.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 77c | 302.09$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…17e3backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 12c | 257$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 74c | 250$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…b9eabacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9265…488bbacked Yes | 25c | 196.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 80c | 190$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…3fdbbacked Yes | 17c | 181.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked No | 47c | 169$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 18c | 125.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b29…50bcbacked Yes | 16c | 124.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…d571backed Yes | 18c | 116.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d04…5f7abacked Yes | 25c | 110.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 40c | 107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 10c | 105.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…00aebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb89…8e6abacked Yes | 58c | 99.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa669…a98abacked Yes | 30c | 87.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…0951backed Yes | 24c | 82.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…6baebacked No | 78c | 76.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735b…bbf3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…4dd3backed Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.