TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$519,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$498,844

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $519,788 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb63a…4064backed Yes2c28,204$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.5717231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a92…071ebacked Yes1c21,905$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.713076.7%23 W · 7 L+9.0wins+0.30per pick47cpaid+47.4%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes4c21,099$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851.64290%0 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes17c17,486$2,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,944.3458126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0da…2a34backed Yes1c17,376$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+127.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x392d…371cbacked Yes1c14,758$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9066…c20abacked No75c12,892$9,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,212.9115561.9%96 W · 59 L+19.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes34c11,087$3,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,714.1987828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a5…bafebacked Yes4c10,630$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.7723411.1%26 W · 208 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c10,338$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.221,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes2c9,397$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.383312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-69.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes11c8,877$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.6228021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No44c8,478$3,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,742.468038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes33c8,400$2,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,766.4555032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba51…ff35backed Yes16c5,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid-13.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb5…da0abacked Yes3c4,070$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.560%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Yes24c4,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4851…1e94backed No78c3,724$2,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$819.322548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80f4…c918backed Yes37c3,229$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,194.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…92f9backed Yes27c3,170$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8601442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes21c3,031$634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$634.0724654.9%135 W · 111 L+16.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07a2…3389backed Yes3c3,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f9b…f652backed No46c3,000$1,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6208231.7%26 W · 56 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+10.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes8c3,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2407810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No24c2,900$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,20310545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bc9…7361backed Yes2c2,693$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46832.4%2 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x345e…6bc7backed Yes6c2,622$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.293417.6%6 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb646…0cf9backed Yes23c2,215$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.931833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9990…cd29backed Yes5c2,041$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67dc…a64bbacked No58c2,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes11c1,779$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.0240643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked No77c1,734$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.094955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe626…6771backed Yes2c1,701$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc951…8ab4backed No59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-25.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes30c1,620$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.47949.4%39 W · 40 L+10.2wins+0.13per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5942…7f98backed No71c1,591$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.48333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick63cpaid-53%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf10b…97a5backed No75c1,536$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.921723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa77…19a0backed Yes2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5e…49edbacked Yes11c1,234$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32b9…fc97backed Yes2c1,111$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.66per pick9cpaid+632.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x75a9…c2debacked Yes18c1,100$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19860%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed Yes5c1,003$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.87140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x984c…a21abacked No71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2901154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Yes13c949.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes55c884.43$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No45c852.68$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.097642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b5f…d5b2backed Yes6c810.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa92…0d27backed Yes46c787.48$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.731921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-48.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b7a…8304backed Yes13c760$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954161%25 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+4.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Yes28c750$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2104318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd02c…769fbacked Yes16c750$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5120%0 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c1b…2527backed Yes4c700.92$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.980%0 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes4c698.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303514.3%5 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick8cpaid+112.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc540…155abacked Yes3c645.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc577…1f0bbacked Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1070%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59f5…4659backed Yes3c606.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb60e…3574backed Yes32c600$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1924658.7%27 W · 19 L+5.3wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+35.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcab9…99d0backed No43c592.63$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.271546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95e0…d1ccbacked Yes17c588.26$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed No68c588.24$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.244920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6886…1682backed Yes5c550$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba95…5516backed Yes3c540.35$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb6af…65d6backed Yes11c505.62$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No59c500$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2055453.7%29 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3869…35c2backed Yes4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1557020%14 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22b8…04cebacked Yes5c500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5130%0 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcd79…9793backed Yes6c498.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9d2…4060backed Yes10c484.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa72c…ff2abacked Yes11c449.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.222931%9 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd6…23f8backed No48c420.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.57287.1%2 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-85.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5916…8d4fbacked Yes62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes45c385.75$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7222550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes54c359.75$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.1719439.2%76 W · 118 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes11c329.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6af6…296ebacked No77c302.09$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.481050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35a4…17e3backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes12c257$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.687424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes74c250$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1857140.8%29 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ad…b9eabacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b58…eb2bbacked Yes15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9265…488bbacked Yes25c196.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe585…91b5backed No80c190$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382857.1%16 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4112…3fdbbacked Yes17c181.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c03…604ebacked No47c169$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.9717229.7%51 W · 121 L-13.0wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes18c125.51$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.226434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b29…50bcbacked Yes16c124.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0282…d571backed Yes18c116.08$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371533.3%5 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d04…5f7abacked Yes25c110.84$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+98.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes40c107$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9008…f3cebacked Yes10c105.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114723.4%11 W · 36 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d34…00aebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a18…badcbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb89…8e6abacked Yes58c99.79$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.67757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa669…a98abacked Yes30c87.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c5…0951backed Yes24c82.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202425%6 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-64.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbdb5…6baebacked No78c76.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.46560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x735b…bbf3backed Yes16c62.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-52.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa163…4dd3backed Yes51c60$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.81442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.