TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$296,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$293,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $296,444 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf25…3b7fbacked No58c17,710$10,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,459.931450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2809…c934backed Yes1c9,397$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad45…b8c9backed Yes11c9,198$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,051.89937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabdc…3320backed Yes6c9,016$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.6660%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No66c8,883$5,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,983.1258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c7c…128cbacked Yes35c8,571$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes6c8,000$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.257810.3%8 W · 70 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid-33.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c7,382$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.461,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd904…137bbacked Yes3c7,294$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes22c5,802$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.7887828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No78c5,250$4,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.5655032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2300…21c8backed Yes4c5,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90b5…d709backed Yes0c4,057$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.97140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb7d7…5653backed Yes2c3,997$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes3c3,916$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120287.1%2 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-85.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd980…5be0backed Yes3c3,571$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011210.7%12 W · 100 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde20…16d7backed Yes2c3,416$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd643…0dd4backed No47c2,850$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,511.510545.7%48 W · 57 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes4c2,768$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995822.4%13 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-44.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce10…51d4backed No58c2,353$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.998038.8%31 W · 49 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe699…b4b3backed Yes14c2,217$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb646…0cf9backed Yes14c2,176$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.621833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe4e…c06fbacked Yes9c2,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.01520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x269c…9017backed Yes29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5802941.4%12 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Yes5c2,000$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd590…a04ebacked Yes19c1,734$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed Yes16c1,700$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.528021.1%59 W · 221 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes2c1,648$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.72320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x137f…968dbacked Yes3c1,563$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8572…6331backed Yes3c1,500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1521…90e1backed Yes1c1,500$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a1…1b72backed Yes2c1,500$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232128.6%6 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea81…30b5backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003225%8 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…9d19backed Yes3c1,412$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40110%0 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x75a9…c2debacked Yes17c1,200$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20460%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed Yes41c1,112$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.0222550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcab9…99d0backed Yes4c1,096$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.071546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes5c1,053$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.6570%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa59b…9af3backed Yes1c1,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d85…228ebacked No71c985.92$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-50.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes4c843.34$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f48…eb02backed Yes4c813.05$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf10b…97a5backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6481…b1bfbacked Yes3c700$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d6d…1ba1backed Yes3c667.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x345e…6bc7backed Yes4c560$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.43417.6%6 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-40.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07a2…3389backed Yes10c550$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2ee…e354backed Yes4c526.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes4c526.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x769f…7b86backed Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8070%0 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes39c500$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19312012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96bf…bc30backed Yes3c490$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f55…e528backed Yes5c441.03$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.46119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-81.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce7b…7677backed Yes34c415.33$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b3a…996bbacked Yes9c410.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x686b…38edbacked Yes4c405.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c5…feeabacked Yes60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2404955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8115…3622backed Yes3c396.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3137.7%1 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-84.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed No67c382$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2240643.3%176 W · 230 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b7e…23ebbacked No73c370.37$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002391.3%21 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick69cpaid+31.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-38.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes17c349.21$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-86.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57af…1a28backed Yes29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61d7…089abacked Yes14c331.43$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dba…b54dbacked No33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.031675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+48.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e8b…e99fbacked No38c299.25$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.37642.1%32 W · 44 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1dc…018dbacked Yes5c291.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa14…ebb0backed Yes28c285.71$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+31.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e29…75b6backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5e…2d04backed Yes30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd33…cf51backed Yes47c200$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944165.9%27 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb6a…fed6backed No52c192.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb217…ab1dbacked Yes43c187.86$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed No75c160.55$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.953171%22 W · 9 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes17c145$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.57424.3%18 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1fe…118dbacked Yes36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+75.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6305…48fabacked Yes67c130$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf23…136bbacked Yes11c125.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x643e…54a8backed Yes54c122.22$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aff…c2c7backed No70c100$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed No76c90$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.361154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x723d…6f19backed Yes53c87.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9553…6d6bbacked No66c81.26$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e5…9751backed No76c80.5$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.69771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick43cpaid+146.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6d2…e9f8backed Yes14c80$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1920…cc81backed No65c74.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9482…ae9ebacked Yes50c70$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd325…eb66backed No52c70$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No54c62.22$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.627746.8%36 W · 41 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes27c59.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.956434.4%22 W · 42 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb23…c1ffbacked Yes69c56.38$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.950%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b37…5477backed No50c51.94$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.97366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c48$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.464812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4949…6b51backed Yes54c42.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6abe…f4afbacked No69c37.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5093…b2cbbacked Yes30c36.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb10a…aafebacked Yes64c31.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.