Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b50447b0b885af77733ba00e43b5895b0ebb45162ecdd55f843215fc8134168
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 12,406$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7c…128cbacked Yes | 20c | 10,014$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e81…8406backed Yes | 11c | 4,550$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.1 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…43c1backed No | 73c | 3,660$2,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…968dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,583$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked No | 79c | 3,264$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.09 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa339…92b6backed Yes | 38c | 2,684$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0be…492fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,504$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…6512backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes | 1c | 1,853$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 1c | 1,686$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,560$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.89 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 1c | 1,357$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x741a…534ebacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…8009backed No | 61c | 819.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe4…69fbbacked No | 66c | 757.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 40c | 577.89$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.27 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x686b…38edbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…dcefbacked Yes | 27c | 369.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e29…75b6backed Yes | 5c | 300.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 12c | 276$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb217…ab1dbacked Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…11ecbacked No | 66c | 184.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…a21abacked Yes | 40c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…6ffbbacked No | 63c | 141.29$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d39…c505backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 29c | 108.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 17c | 91.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 75c | 85.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…a87cbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd4…98c5backed No | 71c | 27.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…cbf5backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked No | 76c | 13.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.