Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68965b3de2968967232fad672e553af03f3b6215a05b13ebfdb3ea737fa81788
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $325,440
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $313,703
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $325,440 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 2c | 27,600$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.49 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…0f3abacked Yes | 1c | 21,001$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 1c | 12,400$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc951…8ab4backed No | 78c | 11,491$8,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…4d98backed Yes | 3c | 10,940$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…19a0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a92…071ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,691$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.30per pick | 47cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb84f…ff71backed Yes | 3c | 7,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +273.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 0c | 7,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd79…9793backed Yes | 4c | 6,951$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…42a0backed Yes | 12c | 5,040$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 4,949$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.76 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1c…8767backed Yes | 4c | 4,137$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 7c | 3,854$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.52 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…1b2fbacked Yes | 8c | 3,750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d34…00aebacked Yes | 2c | 3,023$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d1ccbacked Yes | 5c | 2,180$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,038$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…6bc7backed Yes | 6c | 1,965$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 13c | 1,901$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 1,614$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.56 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 13c | 1,600$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.68 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 70c | 1,500$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb5…da0abacked Yes | 3c | 1,497$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…49edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,136$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…94c6backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…4346backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 74c | 800$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 59c | 676.27$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.27 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 9c | 643.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.78 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x663a…5c51backed No | 63c | 574.14$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…bac0backed Yes | 18c | 560.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd8…c4abbacked No | 76c | 499.97$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…ff2abacked Yes | 5c | 469.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa59b…9af3backed Yes | 5c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed Yes | 16c | 367.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4537…fd02backed Yes | 23c | 344.62$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 19c | 320$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 6c | 275$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…c253backed Yes | 4c | 238.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…3fdbbacked Yes | 8c | 226.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes | 38c | 200$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.6 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26bf…fd3cbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 58c | 196.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.04 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 33c | 191.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…2527backed Yes | 12c | 168.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 28c | 141.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7a…c9fabacked Yes | 40c | 124.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…063dbacked Yes | 42c | 102.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9c…2be7backed Yes | 36c | 100.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…1245backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 26c | 86.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 43c | 65.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 71c | 56.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…0ab1backed Yes | 41c | 40.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x155a…550fbacked No | 61c | 28.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9f…c1a4backed No | 71c | 28.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa662…6b48backed No | 63c | 26.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 47c | 22.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1247…9ce9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.