Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3685767fd5954030e3ed91f75dc72a18cbf4b8ed1809d5324618e2d0b6e75d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 61c | 15,276$9,376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,899.51 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0062…bff3backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 56c | 7,818$4,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,414.38 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 30c | 4,000$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 35c | 2,279$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.68 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 37c | 2,170$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.8 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 56c | 2,145$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.67 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 37c | 1,769$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.94 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed No | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 25c | 666.64$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.66 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 28c | 492.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 36c | 287.37$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 36c | 278.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed Yes | 56c | 200$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked No | 53c | 180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 168$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 72c | 139.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…d67cbacked Yes | 56c | 130$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfa…9bb4backed No | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae0…237cbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d9…a756backed Yes | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…cb45backed Yes | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.75 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf1f…3537backed No | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 38c | 114.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed Yes | 40c | 103.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.26 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aff…c2c7backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7058…26b2backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 41c | 98.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 66c | 83.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…19cfbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb89…8e6abacked Yes | 77c | 71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196e…603abacked Yes | 55c | 67.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed Yes | 46c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb217…ab1dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984c…a21abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6c…e10dbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbadf…44fcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 70c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3a…996bbacked Yes | 41c | 27.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34be…f131backed No | 48c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…cbf5backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.