Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a7da56daf35140ae22dd963470f476d16537b2f1786c00e3c11b981e74f3069
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $179,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4500…115dbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 51c | 10,859$5,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,266.83 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 18c | 7,608$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,207.84 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…2bf1backed No | 68c | 7,200$4,916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,916 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 52c | 6,966$3,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.54 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 52c | 6,834$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,536.24 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…63b2backed No | 5c | 6,500$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 36c | 3,520$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,239.24 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9821…6c9dbacked Yes | 20c | 3,076$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,474.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 49c | 1,837$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.6 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1517…5b34backed No | 73c | 1,240$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.31per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 34c | 1,200$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7a…8304backed Yes | 33c | 1,150$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.88 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 35c | 1,042$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.58 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked No | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 35c | 920.75$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.73 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…0cf9backed Yes | 41c | 873$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.07 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07a2…3389backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 47c | 428.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed Yes | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4227…1eeabacked No | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 74c | 375.68$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 55c | 330$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.3 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 47c | 221.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 39c | 214$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.4 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 55c | 187.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.72 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 167.57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…5fc4backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45b…a237backed Yes | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…cbc0backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 70cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe61f…f07abacked Yes | 45c | 110$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 62c | 100.19$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…3a90backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fe…118dbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 19c | 95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…5522backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 47c | 87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x305e…9606backed No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…ff2abacked Yes | 47c | 56.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…d33bbacked Yes | 59c | 50.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…87e4backed No | 72c | 44.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fa…9795backed Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d7c…6dddbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…1c40backed No | 75c | 25.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…1f2abacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.