Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a3d311c1a590888038fe1e949fadb769536c39ba635a92947b29b25b0080f1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $364,492
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa77…19a0backed Yes | 4c | 28,615$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…f8bbbacked Yes | 7c | 27,095$1,763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.3 | 119 | 8.4%10 W · 109 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 5c | 9,652$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.54 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 7,080$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.61 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…0ddfbacked Yes | 0c | 6,305$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 5,415$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.36 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe1…b2d6backed Yes | 1c | 5,010$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba51…ff35backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…2ef6backed Yes | 4c | 4,072$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +10.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x916d…cc95backed Yes | 3c | 3,819$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a9…c2debacked Yes | 3c | 3,300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 6c | 3,202$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.53 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…ce22backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 83 | 7.2%6 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345e…6bc7backed Yes | 7c | 2,199$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.3 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 4c | 2,132$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.33 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…1b72backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.56 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd79…9793backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…d571backed Yes | 4c | 1,095$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes | 12c | 855.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +111.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed Yes | 6c | 847.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7532…c6fcbacked Yes | 4c | 700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 112 | 65.2%73 W · 39 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a29…5fdbbacked Yes | 2c | 691.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ee…e354backed Yes | 3c | 689.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd6…23f8backed Yes | 8c | 512.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…f3cebacked Yes | 5c | 466$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked Yes | 6c | 351.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…1245backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7a…c9fabacked Yes | 11c | 178.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5e…33bdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc059…a296backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.