Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc989b48e36864266b918d16fea4808f3c58f7723923b97ec1eb7ad262aecbfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,381
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 20c | 14,091$2,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,828.7 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 76c | 9,198$6,985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.08 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 31c | 1,449$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.27 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd1…2365backed Yes | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 69c | 1,100$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 10.3%8 W · 70 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 17c | 919.6$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.24 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79ed…1619backed No | 16c | 858.01$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 36c | 782.7$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.64 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 10c | 700$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fed…6ffbbacked No | 10c | 666.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.65 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 62c | 562.82$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.34 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…a64bbacked Yes | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 424.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed No | 15c | 392.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.21 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 40c | 383$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb7…1b8ebacked No | 9c | 361.17$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 10c | 330.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbe…d37abacked Yes | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd19f…9826backed No | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89f…6a27backed Yes | 64c | 200$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 25c | 196.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb217…ab1dbacked Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 65c | 138.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…48fabacked Yes | 57c | 135$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc887…869bbacked No | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…1517backed Yes | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…35dcbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…c3debacked Yes | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…cbfdbacked Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x674a…ad6cbacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b1…7348backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 59c | 41.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 27-November 2?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $116,000 October 27-November 2?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 27-November 2?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 27-November 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.