TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Aleo airdrop by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$306,662
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,091

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,662 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 195 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes0c105,184$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.692450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8687…e87fbacked No74c9,810$7,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb980…62e6backed Yes60c8,632$5,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,167.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf4c…29a1backed Yes60c7,654$4,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,592.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaec…65afbacked No40c7,654$3,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,592.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e3…7436backed Yes70c7,249$5,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,074.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x117a…8e90backed No30c7,249$2,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,074.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cd…c9fbbacked Yes31c6,413$1,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked No58c5,260$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,210.421361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked Yes40c4,455$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.823033.3%10 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes12c4,259$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.46848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No24c4,047$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,066.222853.6%15 W · 13 L+7.7wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+103.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes60c3,921$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.3315041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…dcd2backed Yes55c3,872$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,134.46742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46af…febfbacked Yes37c3,503$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d3…d385backed Yes49c2,825$1,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes10c2,724$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.244318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bb2…ccefbacked No49c2,152$1,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6337…854fbacked Yes18c1,941$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e0b…bc78backed Yes36c1,923$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,757$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8133329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd486…8c54backed Yes58c1,663$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes76c1,508$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.873119.4%6 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd4e6…ba38backed No38c1,458$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.2728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick21cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes33c1,424$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.597919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeee8…7e06backed Yes26c1,290$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.771717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…ef25backed No65c1,224$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed Yes69c1,178$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.95666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No64c1,141$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.371315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-74.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x25b9…2970backed No37c1,075$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.45048%24 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes18c1,038$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc943…4763backed Yes19c995.92$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7845…1730backed No65c918.8$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06b…4faebacked Yes63c914.01$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.04922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid+272.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ac…2c1abacked Yes18c887.37$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-55.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes43c859.62$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.053831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0a…33c7backed No27c855.44$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.181637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bff…5fc1backed Yes25c787.07$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes30c748.6$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.855026%13 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7789…f823backed Yes79c728.69$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5735315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeac3…730ebacked No61c722.59$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cd…ea68backed No42c699.89$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.89757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80de…ef85backed Yes29c699.11$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+84.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x482f…8a10backed No12c695.7$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.222100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+382.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x77cf…0e71backed No72c668.81$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.03450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…8dafbacked Yes40c654.26$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f7…c4e5backed Yes37c600$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.51060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fc0…6cfdbacked No4c594$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.241100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,400%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x431e…8bd0backed Yes59c585.75$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7a2…5345backed No19c574.52$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+131.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e7b…8baebacked No24c563.8$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.473100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+132.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x586a…41d0backed Yes37c553.11$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.65450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40ba…0f49backed Yes57c513.35$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.112055%11 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b38…9937backed Yes58c500$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29060%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No48c494.96$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.125832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x535f…5ce5backed No53c491.45$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5af3…b347backed Yes34c487.19$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8904…80a3backed No49c469.26$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.365650%28 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf786…73ccbacked No80c468.81$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes21c452.14$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.99510%0 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a72…d0adbacked No35c447.86$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+182.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf45…9474backed Yes54c439.89$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed No53c435.37$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.07837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked No7c434.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.711618.8%3 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick6cpaid+170%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5535…81b4backed Yes15c408.22$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.23837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes13c401.39$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.49633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+118.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc2…d2afbacked No45c379.85$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.911915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-69.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes57c375.28$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.51631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabdb…aa87backed No54c358.62$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64ee…aa30backed No56c350.21$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93a4…a537backed Yes64c342.9$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.85825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No63c339.06$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.061060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc733…6293backed Yes59c337.59$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3ade…14f8backed Yes61c327.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b5f…d5b2backed No54c326.64$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.172133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7e…4562backed No71c314.57$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.472646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f70…cb88backed No35c313.43$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+187.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6da…2ad1backed Yes61c311.48$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+113.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…ec76backed Yes58c273.21$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…bdabbacked Yes71c258.33$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.73933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x43b3…e3a9backed Yes16c256.25$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x89ae…7aa7backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8c…2a49backed No43c230.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.951540%6 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc67e…b892backed No46c218.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.522240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc3c…e38bbacked No64c217.99$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.993066.7%20 W · 10 L+4.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce8a…88cdbacked No24c208.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.332100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+175%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6780…f913backed No49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes52c203.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.411163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick41cpaid+45.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No59c200.01$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836713.4%9 W · 58 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb805…9e99backed Yes28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9a1…35fabacked Yes59c199.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.991233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd833…ecb0backed Yes55c196.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd396…4991backed Yes55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf52c…a46ebacked Yes28c181.15$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0939…8137backed Yes22c180$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.89944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0b…8996backed Yes65c179.54$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.823847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes60c178.62$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.172119%4 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88db…4228backed Yes39c171.62$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.46955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+125.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27e2…2c85backed Yes68c165.18$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.0330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.