Token Launches · resolved market
Scroll airdrop by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c6acc986c649d84360ac3aaecd2d9ea0c228469979787a9b9443c6bed192223
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,961
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,961 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7475…8b4dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,225$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1af…9bc4backed Yes | 15c | 5,291$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…69adbacked Yes | 3c | 3,334$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 3c | 2,559$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.41 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 2,550$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 12c | 1,672$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.03 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…c370backed Yes | 33c | 1,602$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,300$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…711fbacked Yes | 23c | 949.12$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 836.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc6…2ea6backed Yes | 3c | 799.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a7…9266backed Yes | 4c | 795.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f38…53b2backed No | 73c | 633.79$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…cc12backed Yes | 19c | 521.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 71c | 449.94$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.55 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bb…4ee0backed Yes | 36c | 380.1$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0939…8137backed No | 61c | 300$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be6…bdfebacked No | 76c | 289.93$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x586a…41d0backed Yes | 17c | 215.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…d33cbacked No | 69c | 120.66$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes | 12c | 113.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…805dbacked No | 75c | 105.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7b…8baebacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +132.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…c104backed No | 73c | 68.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd478…2a73backed No | 51c | 54.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…5eeebacked No | 71c | 45.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe920…6578backed No | 79c | 43.53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…ba51backed No | 80c | 38.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b38…171fbacked No | 70c | 37.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e23…6eadbacked No | 65c | 36.87$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed No | 78c | 35.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8acb…baebbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…8b2cbacked No | 76c | 26.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d36…42f2backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5d…67b1backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 33cpaid | +190.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…9a74backed No | 78c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…9fe8backed No | 77c | 16.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0898…3c6dbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Scroll airdrop by September 30?this page
- Aleo airdrop by September 30?No won
- Base airdrop by September 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by September 30?No won
- Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?Yes won
- Jumper airdrop by September 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by September 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by September 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by September 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by September 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by September 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.