Token Launches · resolved market
Rabby airdrop by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3da88cdb816ffbb4466bfd7666a29ef69d2ef07dd94b54276c847433c58463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 23,051$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.8 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 9c | 2,165$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.85 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…7aa6backed Yes | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 15c | 770.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 76c | 720.55$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +108.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fc…240cbacked No | 75c | 662.28$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 628.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…35fabacked No | 73c | 501.35$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.35 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…ea68backed Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…1612backed Yes | 24c | 420.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 14c | 399.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Yes | 25c | 391.2$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 79c | 390.91$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 25c | 371.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…3eb2backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 24c | 340$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 73c | 333$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed No | 75c | 330.17$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…8155backed Yes | 25c | 304.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 13c | 250$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 12c | 224.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x482f…8a10backed No | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +382.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0afd…e484backed Yes | 16c | 195.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb202…1e15backed Yes | 11c | 180$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6750…02a9backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…8dc0backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81a…ae88backed Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…968dbacked Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…f885backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5f…a75cbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3789backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…3b90backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7535…cd0abacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6863…f17bbacked Yes | 20c | 95.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f63ebacked Yes | 28c | 95.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…d602backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…4404backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a1…b818backed Yes | 35c | 90$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…ce21backed Yes | 16c | 87.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d7…7bbabacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…08aebacked Yes | 25c | 72.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7a…cae0backed No | 72c | 71.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2204…5692backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca2…d182backed Yes | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f82…4663backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…5745backed Yes | 28c | 68.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…88cdbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +175%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…39fdbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6b…b03abacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…575dbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…0236backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x592a…efa7backed No | 76c | 28.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4801…af30backed No | 75c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…c8e2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…da06backed No | 76c | 14.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rabby airdrop by September 30?this page
- Aleo airdrop by September 30?No won
- Base airdrop by September 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by September 30?No won
- Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?Yes won
- Jumper airdrop by September 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by September 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by September 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by September 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by September 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by September 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.