Token Launches · resolved market
pump.fun airdrop by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf77290d8a1e4b5aa8af1b8032b462e3026ee65348b15b77ab3cb326ec9509046
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 13,417$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.69 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73da…2292backed Yes | 16c | 6,949$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 2,119$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 14c | 1,461$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.49 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe232…9df9backed Yes | 2c | 685.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 18c | 527.29$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed2…c3f1backed Yes | 18c | 301.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…dfe2backed Yes | 7c | 245.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 14c | 170$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 135.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 18c | 122.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 116.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc733…6293backed Yes | 19c | 115.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 17c | 101.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…ea08backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 6cpaid | +170%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0757…6daebacked Yes | 26c | 66.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7533…1068backed Yes | 20c | 62.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…ce21backed Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- pump.fun airdrop by September 30?this page
- Aleo airdrop by September 30?No won
- Base airdrop by September 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by September 30?No won
- Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?Yes won
- Jumper airdrop by September 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by September 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by September 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by September 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by September 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by September 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.