Token Launches · resolved market
Swell airdrop by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd7dd4c0721463275146ec08055cfded6f6f4040ea45475e7ff868540a00173f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $244,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e76…ef4ebacked No | 73c | 8,253$6,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,197.66 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 51c | 8,059$4,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,094.84 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5872…b21dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,384$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 32c | 5,383$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,703.91 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 6cpaid | +170%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 13c | 4,663$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,040.98 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +7.7wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 13c | 4,602$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.77 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 56c | 4,455$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.07 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4bd8…5c53backed Yes | 67c | 4,368$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,936.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 70c | 4,059$2,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.96 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed No | 14c | 3,851$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,294.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 43c | 3,453$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.99 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 3,441$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.31 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…308cbacked Yes | 38c | 2,487$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed No | 79c | 2,168$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab2…6539backed No | 53c | 1,989$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$938.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…d124backed No | 74c | 1,681$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.06 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…d84abacked No | 73c | 1,667$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…d5b2backed Yes | 23c | 1,650$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…0ba7backed No | 21c | 1,436$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +384%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed No | 70c | 1,395$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.32 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4261…ba74backed No | 13c | 1,304$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +354.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5907…459abacked Yes | 20c | 1,270$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…fd6dbacked No | 54c | 1,270$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.87 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01e…e28bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,242$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…f885backed No | 8c | 1,204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.43 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 1,200$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.98 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a47…d443backed No | 74c | 1,119$828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…21e6backed Yes | 31c | 1,064$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7a…ebc0backed Yes | 22c | 1,046$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…af15backed Yes | 22c | 1,043$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c1…95f5backed Yes | 15c | 1,043$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…cd76backed No | 74c | 1,028$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4c…727dbacked Yes | 28c | 1,027$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…aa98backed Yes | 29c | 1,025$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616c…fcfdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,014$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f44…c301backed Yes | 24c | 1,003$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 80c | 1,002$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.2 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…9b3ebacked Yes | 20c | 1,001$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x717d…5b34backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f29…941dbacked Yes | 25c | 988.84$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 22c | 988.67$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.81 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 45c | 987.99$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…b883backed Yes | 25c | 987.87$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b10…3607backed Yes | 25c | 968.65$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa692…6298backed Yes | 25c | 962.7$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0f…9911backed Yes | 25c | 962.03$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf6…7abbbacked Yes | 21c | 955.72$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e70…8bf7backed Yes | 26c | 932.04$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…0575backed Yes | 26c | 925.28$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fe…41d1backed No | 12c | 866.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$766.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +333.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2b…573cbacked No | 56c | 861.15$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…43c3backed Yes | 26c | 848.09$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 73c | 846.15$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.24 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…102dbacked Yes | 26c | 841.49$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5456…2d0dbacked Yes | 48c | 840.37$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0588…5596backed Yes | 57c | 835.26$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked No | 38c | 834.64$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.19 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb007…1989backed Yes | 26c | 812.52$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc9…5dabbacked Yes | 23c | 810.01$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 58c | 808$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.82 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df7…3155backed No | 8c | 762.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Yes | 22c | 759.67$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.87 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0061…3cefbacked Yes | 26c | 731.32$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…0b5dbacked Yes | 70c | 709.72$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…7081backed Yes | 25c | 695.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83bf…8d63backed No | 76c | 680.26$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea1…3a33backed Yes | 18c | 668.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0450backed No | 15c | 662.42$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc221…4289backed Yes | 30c | 661.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…2ad1backed No | 10c | 660$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +113.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc330…9794backed Yes | 38c | 642.56$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.48 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…6a3bbacked No | 79c | 628.23$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 40cpaid | +230.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf804…7747backed No | 51c | 621.58$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ed…09fcbacked No | 70c | 615.88$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…35fabacked Yes | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f6…f82bbacked Yes | 38c | 581.63$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586a…41d0backed No | 77c | 571.58$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c3…c866backed Yes | 20c | 559.32$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…190ebacked Yes | 19c | 555.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd95…ef9cbacked No | 9c | 551.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +487%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3d…8cbfbacked Yes | 23c | 548.09$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a0…a02fbacked Yes | 22c | 544.62$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e18…aba7backed Yes | 21c | 525.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb7c…d18ebacked Yes | 33c | 524.22$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 27c | 514.31$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.97 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd21c…9658backed Yes | 20c | 500.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4df…7f8ebacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb5…db92backed Yes | 27c | 499.97$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a32…874bbacked Yes | 19c | 499.85$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes | 79c | 494.74$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.11 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 11c | 488.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.16 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…e74cbacked No | 15c | 486.96$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7332…6888backed Yes | 21c | 486.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb671…45f1backed Yes | 23c | 479.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb74…6787backed Yes | 25c | 473.09$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…9506backed Yes | 21c | 472.45$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f8…5207backed Yes | 26c | 464.56$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Yes | 56c | 461.58$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0a…23fdbacked Yes | 22c | 460.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Swell airdrop by September 30?this page
- Aleo airdrop by September 30?No won
- Base airdrop by September 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by September 30?No won
- Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?Yes won
- Jumper airdrop by September 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by September 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by September 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by September 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by September 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by September 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.