Token Launches · resolved market
Jumper airdrop by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x387b5cd89307f188586616748328ca1a945260af27b4ad4b4277b3917c93bacf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 7c | 11,656$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.07 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…84c5backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,740$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 9c | 1,332$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 1,053$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc34…6c42backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 77c | 788.15$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed No | 75c | 764.32$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 67c | 633.6$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.53 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 3c | 545.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…db6abacked Yes | 9c | 543.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37f1…9c83backed Yes | 18c | 388.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d6…d33cbacked No | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe71a…a7d8backed Yes | 19c | 260.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 24c | 238.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…5337backed Yes | 23c | 229.97$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…92bfbacked Yes | 17c | 184.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3c…e38bbacked No | 77c | 162.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.21 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…8dc0backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…3eb2backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…968dbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf247…c63abacked Yes | 77c | 131.86$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd62f…d898backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…a136backed Yes | 29c | 107.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…a35bbacked Yes | 74c | 105.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…d7d0backed No | 80c | 104.37$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…d874backed Yes | 28c | 100.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…b256backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c47…5765backed Yes | 19c | 98.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabdb…aa87backed Yes | 17c | 89.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…2030backed No | 77c | 78.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81a…ae88backed Yes | 56c | 71.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa533…acacbacked No | 74c | 67.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…8fa6backed No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 21c | 53.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1618…a456backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…e565backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3668…3a1ebacked No | 76c | 44.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 25c | 41.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…3313backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2204…5692backed No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8c…6d73backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…0cd1backed No | 77c | 27.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…cb40backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1111…ca23backed No | 79c | 24.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x57f1…ba51backed No | 80c | 23.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…a1f1backed Yes | 77c | 22.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…3446backed Yes | 76c | 20.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…7377backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…b6b0backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…8cedbacked No | 74c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…3d7dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jumper airdrop by September 30?this page
- Aleo airdrop by September 30?No won
- Base airdrop by September 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by September 30?No won
- Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?Yes won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by September 30?No won
- Puffer airdrop by September 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by September 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by September 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by September 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by September 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.