Token Launches · resolved market
Puffer airdrop by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde95fcbba4526edc5b109bf2969967dc80a3706d447f2c1088787962ff75422a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $103,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f8c…2a49backed Yes | 6c | 11,228$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 4c | 5,494$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 17c | 2,748$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.83 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed Yes | 78c | 2,582$2,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.37 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -6.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 16c | 1,988$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,679.86 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +7.7wins | +0.27per pick | 26cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…0baebacked Yes | 33c | 1,600$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 18c | 1,531$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…4199backed No | 52c | 1,500$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.43 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…fd20backed Yes | 4c | 1,067$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,056$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…ea68backed No | 57c | 701.77$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b38…9937backed Yes | 50c | 699.26$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 4c | 540.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +272.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b1…ec47backed Yes | 33c | 486.74$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed No | 67c | 446.41$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.84 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5e…7315backed Yes | 53c | 374.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 10c | 336.59$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x760b…26ecbacked Yes | 6c | 320.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 15c | 303.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 290$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 60c | 282.77$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.98 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 21c | 280.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.16 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…eaf9backed No | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 5c | 226.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.79 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 6cpaid | +170%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed Yes | 43c | 218$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…bdabbacked Yes | 47c | 216.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf82f…59bfbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6da…e44abacked No | 19c | 199.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd1…9c54backed Yes | 56c | 192.77$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…f885backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3935…f439backed Yes | 28c | 166$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…9a3abacked Yes | 54c | 159.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39dd…3a16backed Yes | 30c | 116.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…d42ebacked Yes | 62c | 107.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…b256backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x499a…2671backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf30…4463backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 80.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6991…647dbacked Yes | 28c | 72.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d2…cf81backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked No | 70c | 58.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd0…4c12backed No | 45c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…7176backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c96…ea08backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…872bbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8550…2972backed No | 49c | 49.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…38d9backed No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…f311backed Yes | 75c | 40.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a18…226abacked Yes | 56c | 37.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686c…9d91backed Yes | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked No | 42c | 27.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…22ffbacked Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…de3ebacked No | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…33f3backed Yes | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6901…b99fbacked Yes | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4719…134bbacked Yes | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0712…a871backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8c…6d73backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f97…daf9backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Puffer airdrop by September 30?this page
- Aleo airdrop by September 30?No won
- Base airdrop by September 30?No won
- Berachain airdrop by September 30?No won
- Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?Yes won
- Jumper airdrop by September 30?No won
- Pudgy Penguins airdrop by September 30?No won
- Rabby airdrop by September 30?No won
- Scroll airdrop by September 30?No won
- Swell airdrop by September 30?No won
- Zircuit airdrop by September 30?No won
- pump.fun airdrop by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.