TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Eigenlayer airdrop by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,508,246
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,548,742

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,508,246 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 518 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd60…fc7ebacked No3c115,245$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,800.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No7c56,107$3,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,868.16128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-87%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x47bc…abd2backed No5c50,836$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.22742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick32cpaid-19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x740e…fff3backed No0c26,222$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x599c…b8a3backed No3c22,979$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86a2…be38backed No5c20,861$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.6340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a4a…15e3backed No50c18,556$9,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,230.910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed No3c17,469$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.775832.8%19 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-23.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9ef1…98e7backed No5c16,584$774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe179…1edebacked No4c16,014$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.59922.2%2 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick10cpaid+97.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No6c15,985$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.21825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46af…febfbacked No2c15,727$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa839…d9e8backed No0c15,131$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d2…0da2backed No0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No3c13,010$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.262040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No3c12,000$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd42f…047dbacked No3c11,640$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.295617.9%10 W · 46 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e7d…b230backed No1c11,223$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.561741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8924…ab27backed No9c11,079$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.031428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-56.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9262…bcb8backed Yes5c11,064$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,518.761957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick40cpaid+142%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e8c…a523backed No0c10,995$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e7…5e93backed No5c10,984$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ce…d422backed No15c10,730$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb4b…b95ebacked No0c10,495$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b98…0efdbacked No0c10,416$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd341…262dbacked No0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed No1c10,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba78…7c2bbacked No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf5d…ab73backed No1c9,632$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33cf…7b5ebacked No30c9,199$2,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,788.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a4…38c0backed Yes70c9,199$6,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,788.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5405…3d7cbacked No3c8,325$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No3c8,055$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3744…c141backed No38c7,853$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-74.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes11c7,081$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,286.151618.8%3 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick6cpaid+170%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe23a…144ebacked No25c6,875$1,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,718.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd0…6527backed Yes75c6,875$5,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,718.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8012…38f1backed No25c6,797$1,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9931…b06dbacked Yes75c6,797$5,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0220…2429backed Yes69c6,665$4,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,066.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec7…aae6backed No31c6,665$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x169b…61f0backed Yes76c6,638$5,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x579b…597dbacked No24c6,638$1,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf47…0a1bbacked Yes75c6,454$4,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,613.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6be…c7b7backed No25c6,454$1,614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,613.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc723…05fbbacked No5c5,750$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7134…acb0backed Yes70c5,724$4,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,717.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…3a03backed No30c5,724$1,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,717.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf9…33ebbacked Yes6c5,690$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,374.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+499.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeaed…19c4backed No1c5,581$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ef0…6ca1backed No6c5,490$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x600e…7ef9backed No0c5,390$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed Yes20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff30…4a37backed No4c5,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No2c4,999$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.232853.6%15 W · 13 L+7.7wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+103.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0aae…6c41backed Yes42c4,904$2,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.69633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdf…7a71backed No25c4,826$1,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,188.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5531…0883backed No14c4,693$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No6c4,552$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.76633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-52.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db5…70f9backed No56c4,496$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7e4…1009backed No3c4,347$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab43…d9c9backed No5c4,344$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.48666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick35cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No3c4,325$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0333329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ed…09fcbacked No30c4,307$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.02728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee8…621ebacked Yes8c4,125$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,779.421540%6 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+50.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf965…2fcdbacked No49c4,118$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.53922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.34per pick56cpaid-69.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No4c3,966$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.3915041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…e414backed No30c3,786$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,121.121040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f0…f925backed Yes61c3,708$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edd…c57fbacked No7c3,497$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc26…24d0backed No4c3,414$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00a9…36bbbacked No5c3,273$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a89…7003backed No2c3,267$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaec…665bbacked No28c3,020$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.24425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a5…78e0backed No1c2,863$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…8129backed No3c2,704$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc174…6941backed No6c2,689$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21dc…3c76backed Yes28c2,684$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.12250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+80.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes50c2,666$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.913174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0a05…dfbcbacked No6c2,581$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5da0…5833backed No0c2,509$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2db…edcdbacked No0c2,500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58dd…6ff5backed Yes48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick33cpaid+166.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8764…6d8fbacked Yes63c2,276$1,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No27c2,155$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.333119.4%6 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.20per pick39cpaid-58.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x32b6…c8d0backed No2c2,073$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed No1c2,055$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9777…2a8dbacked No4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-88.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed No23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-70.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1444…90aebacked No5c1,874$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd21c…4ccabacked No44c1,853$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f8…f4cbbacked No2c1,795$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.081010%1 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick27cpaid-75.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa56f…ad0abacked No1c1,727$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948c…42eebacked No6c1,717$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.433633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d7…0d61backed Yes77c1,662$1,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed No72c1,597$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.961020%2 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-69.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3dfb…da50backed Yes71c1,520$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.74250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked No36c1,517$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3686…660abacked No7c1,491$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb13…e592backed No10c1,439$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.