TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$354,239
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$363,100

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $354,239 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe79c…c715backed No10c9,947$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,946.934131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9c0…186dbacked No31c7,906$2,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,466.44785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.34per pick52cpaid+300.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x14b9…f378backed No14c7,413$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,411.212240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c5,627$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.357663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes37c5,300$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.271050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed Yes28c5,000$1,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,384.413237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No13c4,243$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,677.69747.4%46 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7727…8a2dbacked No74c3,820$2,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$998.241369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick65cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c4f…08a7backed Yes10c3,810$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.33119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.25per pick34cpaid-74%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes1c3,625$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.261030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…b226backed No7c3,464$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,216.78650%3 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+273.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No27c3,461$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,539.362626.9%7 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick13cpaid+190.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No46c3,436$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,853.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x624d…d225backed Yes34c3,303$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-63.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Yes64c3,289$2,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.42231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,791$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.831662.4%4 W · 162 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3290…f4bdbacked No5c2,699$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,561.872821.4%6 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e2f…322ebacked No16c2,667$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.56250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+216.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ba6…af21backed Yes17c2,579$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.18450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes68c2,558$1,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.46837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Yes53c2,507$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3304520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ad7…0971backed Yes1c2,402$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbaf…2833backed No14c2,355$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,023.782512%3 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x057a…72bebacked No10c2,040$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.571421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ab1…5ae4backed No7c1,891$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,762.542927.6%8 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+62.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2930…f176backed Yes45c1,862$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.0720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabe2…383bbacked Yes12c1,775$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd8b…5945backed Yes3c1,664$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No71c1,661$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.2580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e2c2backed No6c1,622$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,524.57862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+197.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c1,605$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.072541.6%4 W · 250 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98a5…f3f0backed No13c1,576$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,376.17714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3db…eb1bbacked Yes60c1,514$905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c1,490$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.721190.8%1 W · 118 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc2…ce94backed Yes5c1,480$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.481118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick30cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0fa…fe94backed No28c1,462$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,057.34825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,437$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.733283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9c9…07ebbacked No14c1,390$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.25650%3 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+173.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No13c1,359$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,180.792377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No9c1,323$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.174721.3%10 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9614…bfa2backed Yes76c1,319$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce2f…d648backed No6c1,300$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,228.51118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+84.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf7…7f5dbacked No24c1,268$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+111.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ec…a3adbacked No8c1,251$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.251723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+57.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c7a…76c3backed Yes75c1,250$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes58c1,221$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.7525422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d1…608fbacked Yes1c1,197$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked No9c1,182$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.451107.3%8 W · 102 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…03a5backed Yes33c1,175$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.742725.9%7 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-55.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes7c1,117$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.862094.3%9 W · 200 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-73.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed No7c1,056$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.81040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+90.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x34b7…36e8backed No10c1,034$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.68616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+70.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1464…8748backed No11c1,018$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.665058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+43.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x540c…a634backed No16c1,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8401369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+45.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93eb…edf4backed No11c990.72$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+799.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c975.45$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.32601.7%1 W · 59 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked No11c937.33$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.61735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+103.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x47fc…a405backed Yes70c933.04$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fb…2de9backed Yes11c926.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ab0…1b0bbacked No29c860.75$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+23.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3bf…99d3backed Yes2c839.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c832.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.651122.7%3 W · 109 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-65.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d1…05eebacked No12c800.68$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.232128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick19cpaid+108.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes4c800.56$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.46254%1 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick8cpaid-93.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf584…d8dabacked No38c763.2$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.812100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+102.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0db…ecadbacked No65c761.56$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab51…2473backed No12c750.38$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.2813422.4%30 W · 104 L+12.7wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+175.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd91a…f14bbacked No33c740.94$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+51.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52f…64eebacked No56c714.29$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62f7…129abacked No11c699.98$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.981747.1%8 W · 9 L+3.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+77.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No22c661.79$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.011643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.6wins+0.22per pick21cpaid+118.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9879…6effbacked No15c661.73$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.731050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+34.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x605b…d8b3backed No9c650$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No36c650$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4136841.2%28 W · 40 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91f2…eee3backed Yes80c626.82$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf01a…8512backed No18c611.72$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.541020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd8…f8b4backed Yes35c601.59$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+57.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed No32c571.15$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.1813134.4%45 W · 86 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44b3…28a1backed No5c512$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+193.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…1b31backed No14c498.92$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+612.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes31c479.82$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.77205%1 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick19cpaid-82.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No12c475.51$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.7219336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes6c463.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1452.2%1 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-60.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d1…e903backed Yes67c448.7$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0650%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x186d…01e0backed No40c447.29$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.298939.3%35 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b5f…d5b2backed No22c446.91$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.912133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Yes22c443.27$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.765238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85e0…e601backed No30c437.76$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.44875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+47.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8a…630abacked No12c416.98$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.19425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+105.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5025…dd30backed Yes72c416.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc05f…9b56backed No61c409.82$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.829254.3%50 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76dc…28f4backed Yes3c408.76$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba78…bd6cbacked No54c406.55$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.45333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes8c400.04$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.289228.3%26 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ad9…7bf6backed No5c399.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.991464.3%9 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.38per pick27cpaid+231.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xe9a6…409cbacked No79c399.98$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+40%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa11b…f663backed Yes72c395.95$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.05771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa05f…4ea4backed Yes58c388.39$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.08425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-49%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x44a6…d1bbbacked Yes6c387.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.981735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x565c…467ebacked No31c386.22$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.15666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+36.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.