Token Launches · resolved market
Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e50bc6328f2ac6b28ef14a446a561490a1cc8d960743fcddc901e9039ce3f5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 1c | 2,068$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,995$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 5c | 1,823$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.33 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 69c | 1,602$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed Yes | 73c | 1,480$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.6 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed No | 29c | 1,350$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,278$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 26c | 1,044$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…4a08backed No | 24c | 659.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe057…3e47backed Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 5c | 574.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…41b8backed No | 37c | 391.3$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…239dbacked Yes | 76c | 371.57$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…961fbacked No | 34c | 300.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.13 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78a…1d69backed Yes | 67c | 299.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 35c | 220$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.8 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x354c…66b2backed Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7425…701abacked Yes | 65c | 170$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…2d18backed No | 32c | 152$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…d5b2backed No | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a40…1c7ebacked Yes | 69c | 145.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…b80abacked Yes | 69c | 141.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…d477backed Yes | 76c | 116.94$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 110.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 68c | 109.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…3d20backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfd…fbaabacked Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…8793backed Yes | 68c | 68.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 59c | 60.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3c…c6d8backed Yes | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x684e…165bbacked Yes | 68c | 56.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…99a1backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 44.73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b21…358fbacked No | 42c | 43.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde92…cf29backed No | 41c | 38.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…967cbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.