Token Launches · resolved market
Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90ca282e14ab623ddb1b0c775b2f3115ec98f19f59a75be5b1696da8e44751f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5735…239dbacked Yes | 13c | 670.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…2ce7backed Yes | 18c | 543.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked No | 78c | 243.47$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…02ddbacked Yes | 20c | 228.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 8c | 206.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 170.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 16c | 135.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch?this page
- Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.