Token Launches · resolved market
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d1fae582a392b7570e6f816303ce0fb7e3eedd2ad075d3672dfbcd14e3c6661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ce6…2e69backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 15c | 3,888$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.2 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 15c | 2,596$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.55 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 3c | 2,015$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 13c | 1,779$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.49 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 10c | 1,184$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 1,122$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 13c | 804.87$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.88 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 20c | 705.9$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.7 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 30c | 673.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 17c | 471.9$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.04 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 14c | 456$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 16c | 436.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 336.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…ce3bbacked No | 31c | 324.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…80acbacked No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 20c | 298.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed No | 22c | 270$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 16c | 258.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f31…1757backed Yes | 74c | 240.07$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c8…10c0backed No | 9c | 219.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…b497backed No | 13c | 216.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed No | 16c | 182.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 22c | 168$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 23c | 164.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 14c | 138.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 21c | 121$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 18c | 118.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…bf06backed No | 20c | 117.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d4…b6e5backed No | 27c | 111.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093f…07b4backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…53f5backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8c…605abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 76c | 85.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7282…d4b9backed No | 18c | 83.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…3f53backed Yes | 80c | 83.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed No | 21c | 56.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…ea6fbacked Yes | 72c | 54.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…0c73backed No | 29c | 52.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…3762backed No | 19c | 51.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…a012backed Yes | 79c | 42.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbaeb…d3cfbacked Yes | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.