Token Launches · resolved market
Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf130d32c62f81f79b0eaacc82723b284c79758573e9ae3f7a5c0330c38dd5bff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 8c | 2,630$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…2ce7backed Yes | 9c | 1,762$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…239dbacked Yes | 12c | 961.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 11c | 850.29$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 7c | 771.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 11c | 756.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 7c | 575.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 568.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 8c | 525.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 17c | 520.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 505.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde27…3d20backed Yes | 9c | 499.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…c251backed Yes | 14c | 494.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 479.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…1b86backed Yes | 9c | 423.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 4c | 423.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 4c | 347.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…a440backed No | 78c | 290.91$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 8c | 280.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed Yes | 8c | 274.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 8c | 267$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 9c | 243.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…e5aabacked Yes | 8c | 234.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 10c | 205$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 13c | 203.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 7c | 194.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 7c | 167$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +104%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 6c | 158.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 8c | 155$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…58bebacked Yes | 13c | 149.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 8c | 148.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 8c | 128.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 41c | 38.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.