Token Launches · resolved market
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6d564528c3d17a3cf2425067d54807a48fda0991705816af769bce54c7de792
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,960
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $105,250
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,960 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8670…ed5abacked Yes | 58c | 8,151$4,694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,456.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x543b…4bb0backed Yes | 51c | 4,942$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,441.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 60c | 3,958$2,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.44 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52bf…97a2backed No | 50c | 3,941$1,971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,970.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…976bbacked No | 58c | 3,692$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…579cbacked No | 54c | 3,200$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,728 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…3ceebacked Yes | 46c | 3,132$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,691.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…ff45backed No | 8c | 2,502$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes | 51c | 2,416$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 13c | 2,103$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.28 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c3…da06backed No | 43c | 2,073$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.4 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 37c | 1,888$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.56 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 33c | 1,884$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.4 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked No | 1c | 1,827$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 72c | 1,779$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.51 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 40c | 1,486$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.54 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…9cc0backed Yes | 73c | 1,364$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed No | 37c | 1,282$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.29 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 2c | 1,209$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 40c | 1,130$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.2 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 1,112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 997.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed No | 49c | 979.5$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.34 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 75c | 957.64$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.03 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c2…41b8backed No | 36c | 927.26$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…3044backed No | 59c | 848.24$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…6b82backed Yes | 77c | 730.37$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadcb…1b6dbacked No | 56c | 714.12$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 60cpaid | -76%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 708.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a6…588ebacked No | 56c | 700$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85f…ac2bbacked No | 47c | 700$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e466backed Yes | 73c | 684.33$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 75c | 676.88$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.52 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 654.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 38c | 600$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3e66backed No | 54c | 575$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf34…29cabacked No | 54c | 568$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97d…039bbacked No | 54c | 562$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac87…88c7backed No | 54c | 553$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 3c | 546.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f31…1757backed Yes | 45c | 532.2$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ee…8a51backed No | 54c | 523$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 28c | 512.81$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed Yes | 48c | 498.16$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.26 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…7fcabacked Yes | 78c | 491.41$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…3907backed Yes | 69c | 486.47$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 32c | 469.87$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.66 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 49c | 434$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.82 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b2…7aa2backed No | 54c | 419$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 50c | 402.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…70f9backed No | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4218…4814backed Yes | 44c | 370$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.2 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 58c | 342.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4822…0de4backed Yes | 44c | 330$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 59c | 323$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.19 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 41c | 323$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.19 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bc…ce3bbacked No | 60c | 316.67$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +29%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3c…37d7backed No | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…4a08backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 50c | 299.49$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.75 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…359abacked No | 55c | 264.66$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 261.2$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.75 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff2…90e4backed No | 44c | 254$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.3 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed No | 8c | 226.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8332…b8a5backed Yes | 63c | 220$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…3c44backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked Yes | 46c | 206$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.3 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8251…e150backed No | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…5889backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…e058backed No | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…1dbabacked Yes | 69c | 199.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed No | 59c | 191$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd063…5ccdbacked No | 27c | 190.19$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 61c | 175$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.41 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…3e45backed No | 38c | 171.63$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 46c | 165$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.41 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked No | 53c | 163.5$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.83 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 63c | 161.9$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 70c | 158$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 12c | 139.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…3762backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…365bbacked No | 52c | 120$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6392…fad5backed Yes | 64c | 119.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 26c | 114.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf239…3627backed Yes | 43c | 113.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 26c | 111.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 26c | 107.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da0…83f0backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe038…53f5backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d09ebacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8c…605abacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…1f21backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73cb…7627backed Yes | 69c | 99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 60c | 98.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.