TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,697
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,576

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,697 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x800f…2ce7backed Yes7c2,980$205 inLost-$204.9616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5735…239dbacked Yes5c726.85$35 inLost-$35.271936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-27.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes5c361.5$19 inLost-$18.991330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+22.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes5c240.2$13 inLost-$131323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-50.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ef5…c251backed Yes36c191.46$69 inLost-$6920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed No63c162.15$102 inWon+$608327.7%23 W · 60 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No42c74.66$31 inWon+$43.685100%5 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+160%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x738e…cc2cbacked No75c20$15 inWon+$52100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.