Token Launches · resolved market
Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13bcbe02225576b738196e3d42beab139f711eabda47f6980163db3954d44bab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf915…8720backed No | 64c | 723.19$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…3907backed No | 64c | 602.92$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 41c | 546.47$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.48 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 66c | 491.39$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.89 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 67c | 450$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.5 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 30c | 417.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 38c | 363.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.12 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…2ce7backed Yes | 25c | 308.92$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb7…dad6backed Yes | 46c | 269.87$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.67 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…239dbacked Yes | 38c | 250.79$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…4a08backed No | 61c | 238.68$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.09 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…2d18backed No | 72c | 202$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 45c | 184.21$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…4df5backed Yes | 28c | 107.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 18c | 107.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.45 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 29c | 102.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7906…cfe0backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed No | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 21c | 87.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…dae2backed Yes | 25c | 80.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 28c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…3f06backed Yes | 34c | 52.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 68c | 46.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc7c…4ce2backed No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…d477backed Yes | 54c | 21.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c73…e448backed No | 70c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.