Token Launches · resolved market
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x198e2ff99d1eea57a7bebb8c55e7e738518c7631d252df65864b6bf61085e6dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 74c | 6,860$5,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,051.43 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…8720backed No | 73c | 4,651$3,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,374.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…0ddfbacked Yes | 27c | 4,444$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,244.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…593dbacked Yes | 78c | 4,298$3,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.91 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -14.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x613a…2185backed No | 57c | 3,864$2,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,201.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 34c | 3,086$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…4723backed No | 36c | 2,460$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.12 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes | 69c | 2,171$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,560$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 68c | 1,351$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.78 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 8c | 1,348$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.45 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6d84…3907backed No | 40c | 1,281$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 8c | 1,106$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.49 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…4a08backed No | 69c | 1,057$732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.22 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 1,045$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.03 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 42c | 996.35$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…239dbacked Yes | 47c | 979.81$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800f…2ce7backed Yes | 21c | 969.44$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked Yes | 27c | 959.55$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.3 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 26c | 899.15$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.93 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc3…73d1backed No | 78c | 897.97$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.38 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…cc2abacked Yes | 24c | 888.28$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.78 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 21c | 807.91$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.64 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…50cabacked Yes | 25c | 801.98$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +101%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8004…cd61backed Yes | 27c | 749.72$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…d532backed Yes | 33c | 739.24$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…73b0backed Yes | 7c | 663.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +214.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 23c | 626.86$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.3 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ca…1b86backed Yes | 25c | 594.4$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 25c | 463.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.76 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 43c | 448.82$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.65 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…961fbacked No | 60c | 440.04$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked No | 6c | 420.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…d477backed Yes | 75c | 418.52$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.78 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae7…150cbacked Yes | 27c | 417.43$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.09 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked No | 25c | 404.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa56c…a440backed No | 63c | 383.65$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…8332backed Yes | 53c | 379.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 318.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfd…dd70backed No | 12c | 300$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e8…ca50backed Yes | 27c | 286.93$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 74c | 276$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 59c | 237.6$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…3840backed Yes | 35c | 236$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 8c | 232.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…0470backed Yes | 32c | 210.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.7 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 34c | 204.68$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…a089backed No | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed No | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8080…8a7ebacked Yes | 73c | 180$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 17c | 180$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 27c | 155$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.15 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…2d18backed No | 65c | 152$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.19 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…1f21backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 15c | 146.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.87 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 15c | 140.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.3 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 58c | 137.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 39c | 137.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked No | 19c | 128.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 127.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 67c | 126$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.42 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e34…9434backed Yes | 32c | 118$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.24 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a40…851abacked Yes | 15c | 110.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 79c | 110.53$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…b180backed Yes | 24c | 103$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 40c | 100.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e9…0271backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 30c | 89.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -12.9wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…cd17backed Yes | 44c | 88.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…4df5backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 38c | 76.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Yes | 68c | 72.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 35c | 72.84$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 26cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed No | 22c | 68.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 25c | 67.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1c…3439backed Yes | 41c | 65.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 38c | 63.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed No | 27c | 53.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…86fcbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7408…6197backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…600fbacked Yes | 31c | 47.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 33c | 44.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 64c | 43.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 79c | 40.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…b56cbacked No | 30c | 37.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 69c | 36.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 45c | 31.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe450…91b9backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2352…1d44backed No | 71c | 20.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?this page
- Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $400M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Cap FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.