Fed Rates · resolved market
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc501fa617e3a46ececf6e3990fe1afeeaa6bc897d3c7049c005fd1bdc42c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,906,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,125,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,906,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,638 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bda…121bbacked Yes | 33c | 462,489$153,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308,605.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…abd2backed Yes | 35c | 420,053$149,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271,011.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…d3a8backed Yes | 51c | 307,848$157,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150,142.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…8c31backed Yes | 31c | 299,181$93,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205,967.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c8…d3e7backed Yes | 51c | 290,311$147,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142,327.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes | 35c | 207,986$72,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135,826.57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…74cebacked No | 50c | 206,203$102,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102,204.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f8…89e4backed Yes | 55c | 180,329$99,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80,348.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf220…1c08backed Yes | 43c | 179,889$76,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103,167.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdef9…651abacked Yes | 58c | 178,589$103,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75,228 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…4cdfbacked Yes | 50c | 167,267$83,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83,625.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 32c | 156,908$50,741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,167.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…9af7backed Yes | 26c | 126,599$33,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93,484.62 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 57c | 123,818$70,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,021.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42af…ee14backed Yes | 40c | 110,013$44,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65,957.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 51c | 107,115$54,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54,243.99 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Yes | 36c | 106,827$38,598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68,229.11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee7…35abbacked Yes | 48c | 99,921$48,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,852.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84b…5055backed Yes | 64c | 94,791$60,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,521.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 36c | 74,954$26,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,221.49 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadeb…4e85backed Yes | 57c | 74,556$42,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,209.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 43c | 71,975$31,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,701.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bf…a964backed Yes | 49c | 70,941$34,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,463.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked No | 72c | 70,000$50,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,099.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 37c | 65,593$24,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,257.36 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6178…f9a9backed Yes | 45c | 64,304$28,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,367.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…7b36backed No | 48c | 62,508$30,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,003.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Yes | 49c | 61,447$29,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,560.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 49c | 53,662$26,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,391.94 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c7…d9f6backed Yes | 36c | 49,421$17,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,798.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…e90dbacked Yes | 49c | 47,978$23,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,577.61 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 52c | 47,182$24,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,442.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e2…6b9ebacked Yes | 45c | 46,324$20,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,359.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2233…62b7backed Yes | 34c | 44,916$15,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,589.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ca…fc4abacked Yes | 56c | 44,250$24,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,295.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd7…cd86backed Yes | 49c | 44,125$21,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,451.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 54c | 43,743$23,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,984.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa201…c62abacked No | 58c | 42,833$24,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,995 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…5fb6backed Yes | 23c | 37,542$8,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,865.74 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611c…c982backed Yes | 32c | 37,232$12,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,225.64 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Yes | 36c | 36,054$13,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,054.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 25c | 33,997$8,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,600.42 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes | 21c | 33,279$7,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,231.77 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 44c | 32,814$14,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,268.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 45c | 32,661$14,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,093.93 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 53c | 32,264$17,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,089.01 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962c…f969backed No | 64c | 31,905$20,353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,353.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8352…d51abacked Yes | 50c | 31,533$15,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,894.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8d…6b86backed Yes | 53c | 31,529$16,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,797.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed No | 53c | 30,516$16,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,240.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d56…a170backed Yes | 13c | 29,217$3,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,453.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +676.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed No | 66c | 29,211$19,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,279.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…962fbacked No | 41c | 29,068$11,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,917.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…612fbacked Yes | 24c | 28,813$6,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,934.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +318.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0be6…3fedbacked Yes | 39c | 28,524$11,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,482.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +158.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a9a…81d5backed Yes | 32c | 28,141$8,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,226.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…f6bbbacked Yes | 39c | 28,097$11,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,019.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…ffc8backed No | 76c | 26,819$20,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,387.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20fd…74d4backed Yes | 54c | 25,769$13,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,776.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0857…7f1dbacked Yes | 50c | 25,386$12,738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,647.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…2859backed Yes | 19c | 24,585$4,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,028.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +439.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b61…9651backed Yes | 35c | 24,195$8,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,831.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd319…b901backed Yes | 54c | 23,692$12,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,925.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 20c | 23,657$4,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,028.94 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…3863backed Yes | 57c | 23,352$13,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,037.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…fc9cbacked Yes | 54c | 22,192$12,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,114.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a3…5d03backed No | 50c | 22,165$10,978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,977.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce0…8d6fbacked Yes | 56c | 21,801$12,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,620.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Yes | 33c | 21,461$7,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,424.6 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…fd31backed No | 59c | 21,443$12,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,550.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09cb…218ebacked No | 0c | 21,261$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x657a…b118backed Yes | 39c | 20,605$7,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,646.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf7…7069backed Yes | 49c | 20,207$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,206.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55aa…73f8backed Yes | 57c | 20,000$11,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,600 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b50…43e8backed Yes | 22c | 20,000$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,650 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87c6…89b7backed Yes | 52c | 19,838$10,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,607.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 27c | 19,781$5,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,485.13 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…0609backed Yes | 15c | 19,733$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,733.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8275…038bbacked Yes | 52c | 19,553$10,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,366.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed No | 68c | 19,181$13,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,058.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…0420backed Yes | 54c | 19,066$10,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,689.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4b…3725backed Yes | 53c | 18,836$9,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,841.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 49c | 18,740$9,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,505.58 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3c…c276backed Yes | 24c | 18,146$4,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,876.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +301%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…6017backed Yes | 28c | 18,068$5,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,990.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…7751backed No | 60c | 17,942$10,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,780.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 33c | 17,920$5,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,960.55 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…b49fbacked Yes | 57c | 17,150$9,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,374.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 48c | 17,050$8,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,945.38 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…9debbacked No | 79c | 16,590$13,186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,185.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c0…8010backed No | 60c | 16,563$9,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,997.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…3e97backed Yes | 22c | 16,047$3,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,571.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +361.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes | 23c | 16,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,300 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…7b5bbacked Yes | 23c | 16,000$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,399.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +344.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…8412backed Yes | 46c | 15,827$7,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,592.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…b167backed No | 55c | 15,636$8,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,583.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…0a62backed Yes | 52c | 15,414$8,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,339.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Yes | 52c | 15,402$8,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,374.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Yes | 48c | 15,077$7,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,874.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 50c | 15,000$7,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,543.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?No won
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.