TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Fed Rates · resolved market

No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,499,211
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,734,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,499,211 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 872 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4100…0609backed Yes2c5,539,885$94,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94,155.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick6cpaid+119.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2373…5b7fbacked Yes3c3,095,530$103,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,876.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a35…4379backed Yes2c1,475,456$24,479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,479.2320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7378…12dcbacked Yes2c365,644$5,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,919.4530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cae…bc57backed Yes1c321,656$3,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,595.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e22…c171backed Yes3c235,349$7,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,410.7120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d83…3c0dbacked Yes2c226,171$5,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,022.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f9d…dd7cbacked Yes5c200,729$10,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,403.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ed…9ba8backed Yes3c174,928$4,642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,642.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes2c152,020$2,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,837.6210420.2%21 W · 83 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5940…9615backed Yes2c150,000$2,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,35010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7862backed Yes1c141,320$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.92210%0 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fe…c728backed Yes8c136,558$11,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,133.71118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes2c129,278$2,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,317.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa21e…1378backed Yes2c120,476$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x961f…3daabacked Yes2c116,930$2,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,016.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb8…53c0backed Yes2c114,520$1,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,886.8120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x522d…0b97backed Yes1c106,111$1,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0460…3057backed Yes2c105,426$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,103.2840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3694…1d72backed Yes1c102,583$1,477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,476.791428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-38.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes2c100,792$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…f0abbacked Yes2c98,386$1,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,992.6860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c02…c44ebacked Yes2c95,337$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50070%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes5c94,863$4,806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,805.755127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf296…9839backed Yes3c80,062$2,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.17425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+64.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…afc2backed Yes1c77,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes1c77,462$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.75120%0 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes4c77,300$2,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,874.59119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73bb…6161backed Yes4c76,153$2,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,870.21812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick38cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc43c…e9e8backed Yes4c75,078$3,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,222.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f40…82debacked Yes2c70,238$1,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,053.5720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eed…a51bbacked Yes3c67,152$1,962 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,961.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaed1…9116backed Yes1c64,757$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5421…b7a8backed Yes2c63,384$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x365a…b08ebacked Yes2c61,475$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes3c60,431$1,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,888.688626.7%23 W · 63 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb149…f445backed Yes5c56,524$2,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,709.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c07…6bcabacked Yes1c54,145$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes6c53,281$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes0c51,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70244.2%1 W · 23 L-0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-92.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5769…da59backed Yes1c50,569$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf13d…72fdbacked Yes8c50,236$3,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,803.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e6c…002dbacked Yes2c47,884$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x95c6…43d8backed Yes1c46,763$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a3…dc85backed Yes4c46,572$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99960%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661c…d0c6backed Yes2c46,463$1,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,039.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2052…5847backed Yes3c46,308$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3068…6b97backed Yes1c44,914$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.46425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-33.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d32…0170backed Yes2c41,816$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1584…53d1backed Yes2c40,801$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f2…77bbbacked Yes1c40,199$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.8960%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f14…d646backed Yes2c39,681$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…fd31backed Yes6c38,939$2,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c3…0b95backed Yes2c38,869$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5382…3d01backed Yes2c38,418$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes2c37,771$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$684.33110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x868d…7a46backed Yes2c37,500$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x189a…7a56backed Yes3c37,263$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d96…039cbacked Yes1c37,113$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f00…be86backed Yes1c35,075$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea7a…b9dfbacked Yes2c33,672$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ec5…c071backed Yes2c33,014$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Yes2c32,086$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.0330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d7…6266backed Yes2c31,281$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb515…8d8fbacked Yes2c31,210$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3453…b2f3backed Yes2c30,002$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5a…a1e0backed Yes3c29,812$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes4c29,421$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.39385.3%2 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick5cpaid-75.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ced…247ebacked Yes1c29,375$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e0d…317dbacked Yes3c28,069$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb438…b113backed Yes2c27,910$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.57333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+129.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x188d…36f2backed Yes2c27,778$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f2…44c5backed Yes2c27,660$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.53230%0 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c27,512$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-58.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6236…15f1backed Yes2c27,419$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0020…0d22backed Yes5c27,358$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,307.06128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…60acbacked Yes1c26,880$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf645…0d16backed Yes1c26,674$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400130%0 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed Yes2c25,582$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd75…79b9backed Yes1c24,351$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes5c23,834$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,251.892516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x203b…acd1backed Yes1c23,581$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.641811.1%2 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick6cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b95…6141backed Yes2c22,986$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d1b…393dbacked Yes1c22,759$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2804…9ee4backed Yes2c22,234$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a33…79c0backed Yes8c21,993$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b10…068dbacked Yes2c21,687$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4be1…98c7backed Yes1c21,067$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7990…8738backed Yes2c20,874$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde51…428bbacked Yes5c20,819$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+117.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…c4bdbacked Yes5c20,775$1,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.6110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48d4…00dbbacked Yes1c20,574$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4817…0a51backed Yes3c20,032$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.7920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes1c20,000$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.411010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-82.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda0c…fd27backed Yes2c19,766$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d5c…0e0bbacked Yes2c19,704$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd99b…b7eabacked Yes2c19,509$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.9110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76f9…5aa7backed Yes2c19,432$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.4540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…52a3backed Yes6c19,418$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabe0…bb08backed Yes2c19,387$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.