Fed Rates · resolved market
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb20072387cd12bc73f3a6fd30fdd5aa1644c8f72f958803d90fc05c51db0ac49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,499,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,734,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,499,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 872 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4100…0609backed Yes | 2c | 5,539,885$94,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,155.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +119.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…5b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,095,530$103,877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103,876.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a35…4379backed Yes | 2c | 1,475,456$24,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,479.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7378…12dcbacked Yes | 2c | 365,644$5,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,919.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…bc57backed Yes | 1c | 321,656$3,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,595.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…c171backed Yes | 3c | 235,349$7,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,410.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d83…3c0dbacked Yes | 2c | 226,171$5,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,022.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9d…dd7cbacked Yes | 5c | 200,729$10,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,403.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ed…9ba8backed Yes | 3c | 174,928$4,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,642.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 152,020$2,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,837.62 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…9615backed Yes | 2c | 150,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 1c | 141,320$2,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042.92 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fe…c728backed Yes | 8c | 136,558$11,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,133.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09d…f2ecbacked Yes | 2c | 129,278$2,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,317.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…1378backed Yes | 2c | 120,476$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961f…3daabacked Yes | 2c | 116,930$2,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,016.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…53c0backed Yes | 2c | 114,520$1,887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,886.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x522d…0b97backed Yes | 1c | 106,111$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,543.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…3057backed Yes | 2c | 105,426$2,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,103.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed Yes | 1c | 102,583$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.79 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 2c | 100,792$1,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,727.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…f0abbacked Yes | 2c | 98,386$1,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,992.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c02…c44ebacked Yes | 2c | 95,337$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 5c | 94,863$4,806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,805.75 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed Yes | 3c | 80,062$2,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…afc2backed Yes | 1c | 77,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 1c | 77,462$1,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.75 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…a2cdbacked Yes | 4c | 77,300$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…6161backed Yes | 4c | 76,153$2,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,870.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 38cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc43c…e9e8backed Yes | 4c | 75,078$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,222.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…82debacked Yes | 2c | 70,238$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…a51bbacked Yes | 3c | 67,152$1,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,961.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed1…9116backed Yes | 1c | 64,757$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…b7a8backed Yes | 2c | 63,384$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…b08ebacked Yes | 2c | 61,475$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$937.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 60,431$1,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,888.68 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…f445backed Yes | 5c | 56,524$2,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,709.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c07…6bcabacked Yes | 1c | 54,145$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca5…76bfbacked Yes | 6c | 53,281$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 51,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -92.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5769…da59backed Yes | 1c | 50,569$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf13d…72fdbacked Yes | 8c | 50,236$3,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,803.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…002dbacked Yes | 2c | 47,884$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95c6…43d8backed Yes | 1c | 46,763$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a3…dc85backed Yes | 4c | 46,572$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661c…d0c6backed Yes | 2c | 46,463$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…5847backed Yes | 3c | 46,308$1,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,427.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…6b97backed Yes | 1c | 44,914$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d32…0170backed Yes | 2c | 41,816$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…53d1backed Yes | 2c | 40,801$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…77bbbacked Yes | 1c | 40,199$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…d646backed Yes | 2c | 39,681$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…fd31backed Yes | 6c | 38,939$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c3…0b95backed Yes | 2c | 38,869$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…3d01backed Yes | 2c | 38,418$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b6…7c80backed Yes | 2c | 37,771$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.33 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x868d…7a46backed Yes | 2c | 37,500$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…7a56backed Yes | 3c | 37,263$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d96…039cbacked Yes | 1c | 37,113$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f00…be86backed Yes | 1c | 35,075$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7a…b9dfbacked Yes | 2c | 33,672$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…c071backed Yes | 2c | 33,014$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…e646backed Yes | 2c | 32,086$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…6266backed Yes | 2c | 31,281$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…8d8fbacked Yes | 2c | 31,210$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…b2f3backed Yes | 2c | 30,002$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5a…a1e0backed Yes | 3c | 29,812$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 4c | 29,421$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.39 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…247ebacked Yes | 1c | 29,375$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0d…317dbacked Yes | 3c | 28,069$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Yes | 2c | 27,910$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188d…36f2backed Yes | 2c | 27,778$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…44c5backed Yes | 2c | 27,660$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.53 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 27,512$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 2c | 27,419$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…0d22backed Yes | 5c | 27,358$1,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,307.06 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…60acbacked Yes | 1c | 26,880$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…0d16backed Yes | 1c | 26,674$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 2c | 25,582$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…79b9backed Yes | 1c | 24,351$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 5c | 23,834$1,252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,251.89 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 1c | 23,581$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.64 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…6141backed Yes | 2c | 22,986$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1b…393dbacked Yes | 1c | 22,759$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2804…9ee4backed Yes | 2c | 22,234$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a33…79c0backed Yes | 8c | 21,993$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b10…068dbacked Yes | 2c | 21,687$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…98c7backed Yes | 1c | 21,067$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…8738backed Yes | 2c | 20,874$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde51…428bbacked Yes | 5c | 20,819$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…c4bdbacked Yes | 5c | 20,775$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d4…00dbbacked Yes | 1c | 20,574$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…0a51backed Yes | 3c | 20,032$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…6ee0backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.41 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0c…fd27backed Yes | 2c | 19,766$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5c…0e0bbacked Yes | 2c | 19,704$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…b7eabacked Yes | 2c | 19,509$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76f9…5aa7backed Yes | 2c | 19,432$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…52a3backed Yes | 6c | 19,418$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe0…bb08backed Yes | 2c | 19,387$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?this page
- Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting?No won
- Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?Yes won
- Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.