Token Launches · resolved market
Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd80b5e1ac405ea31d31f8c82f67db3ae0cdad80ae26b205c6da58cf99b3667c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,937 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 17c | 7,200$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 6,886$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.21 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73a…69c4backed Yes | 65c | 4,634$2,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 37c | 3,972$1,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.47 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…8f7bbacked No | 1c | 2,126$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…2cb2backed Yes | 48c | 2,094$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…c869backed Yes | 77c | 1,289$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.64 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 39c | 1,190$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.44 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 1,147$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,011$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.42 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…3ae6backed No | 13c | 899.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…f345backed No | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…1f7bbacked No | 40c | 800$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…9280backed Yes | 40c | 800$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 31c | 669.91$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.79 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 67c | 660$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.37 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 31c | 455.22$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.1 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…573ebacked No | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…d5b2backed No | 50c | 309.68$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.59 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee6…035cbacked Yes | 69c | 288.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 4c | 279.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 20c | 230$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 48c | 207.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 6c | 204$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.01 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 158.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc446…90febacked No | 60c | 149$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 45c | 142.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.05 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x165a…ec14backed No | 60c | 138$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…e487backed No | 60c | 136$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0150…bb96backed No | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…ef08backed No | 60c | 129$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…add0backed No | 60c | 113$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…5ffdbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 20c | 81.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 27c | 79.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x312e…c604backed Yes | 37c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 17c | 74.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…9436backed Yes | 45c | 55.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked No | 21c | 49.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b70…ab35backed Yes | 55c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c9…9205backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0d…af91backed No | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Yellow FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Yellow FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Yellow FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Yellow FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.