Token Launches · resolved market
Yellow FDV above $200M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ff15271385d76ced17b43128ee9eaa53d4a185dcdd8963145b2aeefe7185148
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,178
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,178 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 14c | 10,268$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.68 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d4…6d24backed Yes | 60c | 6,670$4,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650.98 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…c869backed Yes | 35c | 2,845$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,846.43 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 26c | 2,493$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,844.82 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 1c | 1,993$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,647$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.03 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 47c | 1,300$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 46c | 651.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.24 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.99 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 41c | 423$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked Yes | 13c | 418.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.18 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 393$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2b…0728backed No | 72c | 250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 60c | 200.37$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…116ebacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 48c | 158.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.48 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 41c | 147.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 18c | 132.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.11 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 117.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 15c | 91.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 30c | 82.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…5ffdbacked No | 45c | 77.09$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 23c | 72.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 70.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcee…37f3backed No | 52c | 66.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8562…b772backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 72 | 15.3%11 W · 61 L | -17.0wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 26c | 53.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a14…cf54backed No | 35c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0152…f266backed No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 56c | 32.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…573ebacked No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yellow FDV above $200M one day after launch?this page
- Yellow FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Yellow FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Yellow FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.