Token Launches · resolved market
Yellow FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48eab5aef6a52e5a5cfc0c21b6cc81393231aa912a9f1998f9e5d77dc1de871a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 42c | 4,147$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,760.89 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 69c | 3,974$2,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.94 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe51e…5e7fbacked Yes | 48c | 3,535$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.07 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ba…cf54backed No | 28c | 3,500$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 27c | 2,983$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.8 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 61c | 2,655$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.09 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…9d95backed No | 46c | 1,913$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 30c | 1,428$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.83 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -91.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf73a…69c4backed Yes | 37c | 1,335$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +111.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 944.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…116ebacked No | 6c | 941.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 33c | 900$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 890$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde01…5ffdbacked No | 18c | 561.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…3fd7backed Yes | 52c | 496.52$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.27 | 100 | 47%47 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked No | 7c | 473.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 80c | 380.41$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.56 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 30c | 269.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.2 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 24c | 266.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.42 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 8c | 208.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 51c | 200$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.17 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 184.83$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 15c | 170.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcee…37f3backed No | 22c | 161.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 28c | 159.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 20c | 151.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 46c | 132.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.97 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc8c…573ebacked No | 14c | 131$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac9…30c7backed Yes | 30c | 111.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.3 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…e6d1backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 181 | 44.8%81 W · 100 L | +23.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 19c | 93.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.63 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e8…904cbacked No | 42c | 92.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc79d…2362backed Yes | 28c | 71.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…92d3backed No | 46c | 40.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 41c | 33.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 70c | 19.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Yellow FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Yellow FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Yellow FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Yellow FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
- Yellow FDV above $600M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.