AI · resolved market
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8c411a996b4570eb5fa7d1f221c33f219b115fa8437af55c99cf65e3135fbbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 44c | 1,410$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.56 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 33c | 928.65$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.82 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 70c | 801.24$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 51c | 570.74$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.9 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked Yes | 61c | 488.12$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.22 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 37c | 434.38$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4c…3cc7backed Yes | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 39c | 381$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 44c | 356.65$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.2 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…5336backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 48c | 190.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.37 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89cb…cf03backed No | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 73c | 137.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 79c | 127.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…d5b2backed Yes | 57c | 114.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…7fe2backed Yes | 10c | 113.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac2…176dbacked Yes | 61c | 89.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.97 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked Yes | 51c | 88.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 81.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed Yes | 28c | 74.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 34c | 67.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd00…99c7backed Yes | 31c | 66.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 65.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 36c | 58.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 49c | 51.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…c519backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 75c | 49$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 64c | 46.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 78c | 41.05$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…56b0backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed No | 66c | 33.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…5ff4backed Yes | 64c | 31.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked No | 53c | 29.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 79c | 21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 69c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…c16cbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac4…a8c9backed Yes | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83d8…d573backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?this page
- Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Pro Camera by Moment be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.