AI · resolved market
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4ed0a273b8c354452410e7b50fe9e08f7aa6d23619756ade7f076baf552dc9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed No | 77c | 2,641$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,920$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed Yes | 33c | 1,912$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.17 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 37c | 776.34$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc8…a8edbacked No | 63c | 470.9$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.46 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 28c | 428.38$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.38 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd895…3d8fbacked No | 75c | 402.58$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…1b78backed Yes | 60c | 365.8$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…c7b0backed Yes | 31c | 230.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 48c | 227.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 198.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 193.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.03 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed Yes | 37c | 127.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 36c | 123.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 48c | 102.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 78.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 65.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e55…d20dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f7…e077backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fa…7fe2backed Yes | 38c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48af…89ccbacked No | 54c | 20.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1240…6419backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8894…eba1backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?this page
- Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?Yes won
- Will Paprika Recipe Manager 3 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Pro Camera by Moment be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
- Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.