TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,602,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,018,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,602,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 986 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes64c378,615$242,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136,145.974553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No24c288,148$68,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,590.1780%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d23…8f86backed No43c190,285$81,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81,680.97812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-84%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe64f…44a5backed Yes58c188,331$109,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,719.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4518…7180backed No40c92,312$37,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,089.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x22b1…a4a2backed Yes79c58,654$46,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,432.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed Yes78c52,836$41,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,539.12875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+95.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed Yes63c48,473$30,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,083.172272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x556d…f658backed No26c41,758$10,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,942.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0d…546fbacked No30c40,009$12,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,117.6640%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed Yes71c38,115$26,975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,139.493262.5%20 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+40.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb14…bcc9backed Yes64c29,000$18,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,575.242100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42cb…8412backed No32c26,528$8,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,463714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick34cpaid-74.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes76c25,950$19,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,153.894231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fb8…515dbacked No41c25,000$10,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,169.6240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9af…107cbacked Yes65c19,184$12,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,798.28966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x063b…7328backed No39c18,648$7,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,208.43812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No41c17,675$7,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,236.312334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e8…5492backed Yes60c17,613$10,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,045.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes74c17,443$12,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,532.742634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb23b…aeacbacked No25c17,231$4,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,391.1830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed No43c17,190$7,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,340.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes65c16,152$10,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,581.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed No20c15,783$3,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.14520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4abb…67b8backed No41c15,686$6,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,473.2920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a66…9051backed No32c15,269$4,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,86390%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed Yes67c15,086$10,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,932.24650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No43c14,898$6,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,342.59932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e4b…4e43backed No27c14,658$3,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,926.4240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc620…2da3backed Yes63c14,251$8,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,278.415100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+101.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4f84…895ebacked Yes78c14,059$10,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,094.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70d…cb59backed No10c13,710$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a03…cf97backed Yes68c13,318$8,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,323.643100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes79c13,000$10,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,731.082965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadc2…77e0backed No31c12,676$3,976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,975.5250%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked Yes79c12,174$9,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.083100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Yes73c11,243$8,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,039.982475%18 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+22.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf118…1f58backed Yes60c10,283$6,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,139.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6344…fa2dbacked No1c10,198$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226a…42dfbacked No35c9,782$3,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,457.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed Yes71c9,721$6,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,804.663565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6107…6d97backed No25c9,551$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.2360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8631…9a73backed No15c9,485$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,394.498549.4%42 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes68c8,766$5,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,799.212817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaec…665bbacked No39c8,350$3,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,255.4770%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes80c8,271$6,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.845352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No24c8,129$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.31353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes64c7,926$5,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick40cpaid+85.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd52c…543abacked No37c7,880$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,953.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No27c7,791$2,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,119.296336.5%23 W · 40 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb7e8…4da7backed No33c7,596$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed Yes54c7,400$3,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.375100%5 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+81.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes65c7,260$4,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,514.157821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c96…468ebacked No42c7,217$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cda…cf57backed No1c6,630$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7570%0 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed No35c6,481$2,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2963724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7542…28bebacked Yes65c6,115$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d9…d356backed No32c6,003$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes71c5,987$4,258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.413551.4%18 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+50.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2d71…8dcebacked No9c5,803$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8efa…f8c4backed Yes65c5,803$3,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,017.761266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No42c5,789$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,41211647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No16c5,739$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$925.239429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bdf…eed3backed No43c5,731$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.5160%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6622…a384backed No30c5,722$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Yes65c5,705$3,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.183683.3%30 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6060…6978backed No31c5,588$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d9…d9c1backed No31c5,374$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,659.480%0 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2a4e…c0e2backed No20c5,217$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes60c5,157$3,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,080.617356.2%41 W · 32 L+14.4wins+0.20per pick36cpaid+58.6%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x3b9a…3822backed Yes55c5,148$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,316.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6320…ee59backed No30c4,975$1,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,504.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No32c4,947$1,563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,563.49633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd257…ffdcbacked Yes65c4,800$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6801100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eb8…9231backed Yes65c4,613$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.71757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No40c4,520$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.692015%3 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-76.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked No24c4,416$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.416033.3%20 W · 40 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe333…e05cbacked Yes66c4,352$2,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.54650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+52.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed No18c4,345$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.4890%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes69c4,245$2,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,310.834562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaade…ae6cbacked No18c4,077$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.3650%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked No4c4,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150200%0 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No2c3,852$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.29110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b7c…74c2backed No28c3,622$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3e9…fe73backed Yes70c3,571$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x940f…1deabacked No3c3,500$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa248…19d9backed No42c3,462$1,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,455.06475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34e3…6adcbacked No25c3,450$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed No38c3,387$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.269413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27b7…7806backed No18c3,366$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-49.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x719b…c995backed Yes64c3,340$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.05650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c9…5eb9backed No45c3,332$1,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,498.58333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-23.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b64bbacked Yes65c3,319$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6165…a600backed No6c3,284$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.02450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes63c3,275$2,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,225.483253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6116…f247backed No42c3,189$1,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-70%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dae…bf66backed No32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e41…f050backed No32c3,125$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0316…468dbacked Yes74c3,122$2,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$820.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bff…d787backed Yes64c3,108$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+55.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.