Ukraine · resolved market
Crimean bridge hit before October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3472d9f1c030bdf9aa8795b706d099549ce0318b16c8a2f0ea1c5f9c1ac2306a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,779
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,779 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 9c | 19,418$1,778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.62 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 8c | 4,817$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc5…61fdbacked Yes | 7c | 3,805$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…2480backed Yes | 7c | 3,184$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…6d98backed Yes | 16c | 2,856$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.47per pick | 20cpaid | +605.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28df…4843backed Yes | 18c | 2,023$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd1…b557backed Yes | 18c | 1,850$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.54 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…1459backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 887.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed Yes | 8c | 866.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…ee86backed Yes | 15c | 666$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 80c | 625$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 13c | 622.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360c…123ebacked Yes | 17c | 569.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a4…5d27backed Yes | 19c | 520.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd387…cb91backed Yes | 5c | 514.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b6…3f6fbacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed Yes | 12c | 416.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…4228backed Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +7.0wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +219.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9d…24b3backed Yes | 18c | 333$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 3c | 321.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6d…10a0backed Yes | 17c | 311.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fb…2771backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 33cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…0f43backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x509f…8fb7backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +119.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 11c | 275$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb026…d4fdbacked Yes | 7c | 249.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 8c | 208.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…33c1backed Yes | 14c | 202$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b7…5d06backed Yes | 17c | 149$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 134.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e2…73f9backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2d…2ab5backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…5698backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…498dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…7425backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…14bbbacked Yes | 13c | 114.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 16c | 112.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e72…8de6backed Yes | 13c | 112.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fce…2566backed Yes | 14c | 103.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…e235backed Yes | 19c | 102.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2a…9be0backed Yes | 19c | 102.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8f…8341backed Yes | 20c | 101$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…1761backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…bcf7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…05c3backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3634…310dbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d1…bad1backed Yes | 17c | 83.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 17c | 79.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…6d98backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…7b7cbacked Yes | 18c | 66.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…4da5backed Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e23…e59ebacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…edc0backed Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…1116backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…d4e3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3789backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.