TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine hits Moscow by August 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$214,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$213,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $214,358 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes76c13,380$10,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,153.5912927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No2c9,993$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228230%0 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca6…6b28backed No22c7,753$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes3c7,501$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,252.467821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a69…a466backed No60c6,821$4,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,101.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No3c6,313$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.565922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6cc…31fdbacked No20c6,145$1,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,216.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc615…221dbacked No5c5,612$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.42633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+78.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6b…3c65backed No2c5,143$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked No37c4,746$1,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52c9…7f71backed No52c3,302$1,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes2c3,027$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,952.73224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid+85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc408…4675backed Yes49c2,671$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.361172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick53cpaid+40%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9059…a4fabacked Yes59c2,663$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.58520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d4…8c0dbacked No5c2,642$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked Yes55c2,458$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,102.895352.8%28 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed No78c2,367$1,857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,857.4120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes72c2,249$1,615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.668725.3%22 W · 65 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a20…101cbacked No5c2,083$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x809c…a50bbacked No4c1,968$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.41333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2803…0dd7backed Yes57c1,954$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848.54250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes20c1,588$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.13716.2%6 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-34.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed No12c1,552$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.79714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66e0…2480backed Yes8c1,399$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,288.92633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+136.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes17c1,343$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+97.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed Yes20c1,325$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.73847.4%18 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+81.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb4b6…bb1cbacked No5c1,319$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa136…2965backed Yes35c1,315$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.1650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e2…0f38backed Yes6c1,263$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.67616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick5cpaid+163.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes59c1,247$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.48650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7541…6d98backed Yes3c1,225$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.31666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+605.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x087b…0de7backed No7c1,200$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick36cpaid+52.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No42c1,164$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.491127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeee8…7e06backed Yes3c1,113$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.41560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick18cpaid+705.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88db…4228backed Yes2c1,087$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.962568%17 W · 8 L+7.0wins+0.28per pick40cpaid+219.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x7bfd…e025backed No61c1,030$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6da…2ad1backed Yes3c1,000$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.76633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+454.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes13c900$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$786.015119.6%10 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes4c849.95$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.0110625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5069…4958backed Yes17c832.28$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+399.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Yes67c823.16$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.441346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x315b…6f77backed Yes19c809.78$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+71.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaf7…712cbacked No2c807.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28ef…e092backed No6c803.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe274…ee86backed Yes9c789.85$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.85147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-20.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d22…f0cfbacked Yes64c779.03$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.032100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e3a…f3edbacked No55c741.68$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7831…3a88backed Yes3c740.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+1,750.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0cae…68f6backed No7c731.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23ae…5ddebacked Yes55c718.71$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0384…d4efbacked Yes64c675.95$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.478100%8 W · 0 L+3.0wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+150.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Yes15c660$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5601100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+560%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes2c600$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5881414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick21cpaid+284.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes34c599.97$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.78728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x670b…e4afbacked Yes3c575.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick21cpaid+952.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes63c575.65$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.7650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-22.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes28c537.09$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.76580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+73.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes70c533.71$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.123953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes57c510.9$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.611647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c7f…be25backed Yes63c503.23$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.792653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-24%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked Yes64c498$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f9d…24b3backed Yes60c477.94$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ee…f0a7backed No22c476.14$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf750…f162backed Yes12c473.12$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.47757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.32per pick25cpaid+120.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed Yes4c444.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.44475%3 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.68per pick7cpaid+1,189.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x360c…123ebacked Yes13c441.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.481931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb805…9e99backed Yes23c438$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+116.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde4c…1f8abacked Yes26c381.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+280.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2600…2829backed Yes72c364.24$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.03475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+35.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xae81…3f46backed Yes8c350$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3221100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcdaa…6f38backed Yes7c348$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.64825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid+95.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes29c342.49$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.3841736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No35c328.71$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f1…7b16backed Yes5c321.87$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick22cpaid+675.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x081d…8c34backed Yes45c314.95$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.744100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+64.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e5…f82ebacked Yes67c300$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.14358.1%25 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x815b…5ef7backed No67c298.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-61.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d78…2404backed Yes5c294$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.3520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+300%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…6c95backed Yes49c265$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+81.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c9c…420fbacked Yes4c255.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.81333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+675.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked No6c255$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2650%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b6…2e61backed No46c249.26$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe515…9458backed Yes64c225$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c69…9695backed Yes20c223$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+121%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c5…f001backed No24c219.42$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04e3…69d1backed Yes16c200.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.762055%11 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No13c195$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.584045%18 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6478…548fbacked No28c192.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes56c178.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.193551.4%18 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+50.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1285…6a2fbacked Yes69c173.36$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x481c…73eebacked Yes8c169$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.48560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+250.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e7b…8baebacked Yes62c168.8$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x690a…0813backed Yes18c165.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+447.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8cc…2531backed Yes45c159.08$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af0…2f0bbacked No33c151.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca9d…07f7backed No69c150$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed5…c003backed Yes67c148.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc21…bcf9backed Yes75c139.73$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfc…6253backed Yes8c125$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1151100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,150%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7bf…e0e8backed No80c118.76$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.