TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x087b…0de7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 59 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2025, EDT2343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
IEM Cologne: Spirit vs. MOUZbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$750Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$750
IEM Cologne: Vitality vs. MOUZbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+300%+$840
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. FURIAbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$520Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+56.8%+$295.55
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincerebacked The MongolZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$410
IEM Cologne: MOUZ vs. Spiritbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$500
IEM Cologne: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. Natus Vincerebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$127.87
IEM Cologne: Falcons vs. FURIAbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$466.67
IEM Cologne: Aurora vs. Spiritbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$105
IEM Cologne: FaZe vs. Liquidbacked Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
IEM Cologne: Natus Vincere vs. MOUZbacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
IEM Cologne: Falcons vs. The MongolZbacked The MongolZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$622.22
IEM Cologne: Natus Vincere vs. FaZebacked Natus Vincere · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+87.2%+$182.18
IEM Cologne: G2 vs. FURIAbacked FURIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
IEM Cologne: Falcons vs. GamerLegionbacked GamerLegion · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Vitality win the BLAST.tv Austin Major tournamentbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,360Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+44.2%+$601.65
BLAST.tv Austin Major: paiN vs. The MongolZbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
BLAST.tv Austin Major: MOUZ vs. Vitalitybacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
BLAST.tv Austin Major: NAVI vs. Vitalitybacked NAVI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$106.41
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Spirit vs. MOUZbacked MOUZ · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$468Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2025, EDT+199.3%+$932.92
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Virtus.pro vs. paiNbacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2025, EDT+130.5%+$261.02
BLAST.tv Austin Major: Spirit vs. NAVIbacked NAVI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
BLAST.tv Austin Major stage 2: FaZe vs. MIBRbacked MIBR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Team Vitality win the ESL Katowice Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+163.2%+$287.16
All 23 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.35per pick36cpaid+52.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$189
Iran strike on Israel before November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$103
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+70.3%+$70.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+64.5%+$128.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$13.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
IEM Cologne: FaZe vs. Aurorabacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$97.69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.