Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Israel before November?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e2008d0fcbbf303a3480d66389cc5ff065b6c22ad1ab377225143bfd10c00e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $294,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $348,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 53c | 17,382$9,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,217.43 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 79c | 15,772$12,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.55 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a70…52ccbacked No | 70c | 15,327$10,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,732.83 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 8c | 12,002$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d23…8f86backed Yes | 30c | 10,022$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,017.4 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 65c | 9,371$6,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,235.5 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 25c | 8,853$2,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,655.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 80c | 6,406$5,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.04 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3922…48ccbacked No | 0c | 5,451$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 21c | 5,365$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.8 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d9…0e65backed Yes | 72c | 5,086$3,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.19 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6da…2ad1backed No | 1c | 5,000$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked No | 58c | 4,900$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,853.45 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…6cecbacked No | 29c | 4,861$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…ee4cbacked No | 75c | 4,057$3,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,042.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 59cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 58c | 4,000$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,319.99 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…396fbacked No | 15c | 3,323$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked No | 52c | 3,199$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x210f…9d6abacked Yes | 55c | 3,098$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,382.74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 71c | 3,052$2,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,170.25 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91b…4e2bbacked No | 14c | 3,041$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd68…746abacked Yes | 76c | 2,942$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.66 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedd9…986bbacked Yes | 51c | 2,805$1,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 38c | 2,736$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.63 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked Yes | 71c | 2,511$1,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 33c | 2,465$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.09 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…62ebbacked No | 47c | 2,443$1,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…25e7backed No | 21c | 2,358$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf2…09febacked No | 22c | 2,273$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa84e…b655backed No | 23c | 2,172$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef7d…946dbacked No | 1c | 2,141$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed No | 24c | 2,121$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.1 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…f3babacked No | 29c | 2,110$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.59 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…aa81backed No | 30c | 2,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed No | 58c | 1,988$1,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…353bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,966$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.69 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed No | 66c | 1,897$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,258.16 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x831e…8db9backed Yes | 31c | 1,864$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.84 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…d119backed No | 48c | 1,838$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ff…7beabacked No | 27c | 1,837$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 35c | 1,830$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.39 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…bd4ebacked No | 7c | 1,800$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 66c | 1,780$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.67 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked No | 6c | 1,750$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd870…33b8backed No | 9c | 1,723$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf987…5d97backed No | 29c | 1,684$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…5bd2backed No | 20c | 1,605$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,600$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…4638backed No | 26c | 1,500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef9…2e00backed No | 17c | 1,474$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe410…de46backed Yes | 43c | 1,467$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.58 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce82…03d3backed No | 22c | 1,368$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…0de7backed No | 8c | 1,300$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 1,215$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.85 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…ebecbacked No | 19c | 1,210$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…8cb7backed Yes | 34c | 1,185$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0975…a569backed No | 27c | 1,114$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5f…82b5backed No | 69c | 1,075$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 39c | 1,062$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.89 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.69 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…19e7backed No | 20c | 999.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa1…545bbacked No | 20c | 978.52$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 74c | 962.29$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.8 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…de14backed No | 21c | 945.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768e…8f5fbacked Yes | 34c | 907.17$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked No | 8c | 849.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…1f8abacked No | 20c | 845.48$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 26c | 769.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…c881backed No | 20c | 765$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e5…109bbacked Yes | 63c | 713.28$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 699.72$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ec…29cdbacked No | 64c | 695.18$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.22 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9603…ab38backed No | 15c | 683.73$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1921…5efdbacked No | 19c | 669.35$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.38 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006a…e170backed Yes | 63c | 663.43$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 45c | 655.8$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.11 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0329…8129backed Yes | 33c | 650$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd4b…75eabacked No | 7c | 647$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa892…d17bbacked No | 16c | 635.02$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 68c | 611.11$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…0449backed No | 17c | 593.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3907…7549backed No | 17c | 592.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…d5d4backed Yes | 56c | 580$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +137%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…9854backed No | 18c | 555.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…7b90backed No | 11c | 513.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 21c | 501.19$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1962…ffb3backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -70%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…7492backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…fa95backed No | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 71c | 499.99$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.99 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 18c | 488.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf772…36a6backed No | 56c | 486.83$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36f8…2538backed No | 20c | 479.43$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92c…c62ebacked No | 21c | 474.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +154.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc010…89f3backed No | 20c | 467.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 46c | 444.37$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Yes | 45c | 443.09$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.07 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc31c…7830backed No | 77c | 426.3$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x144b…5dcfbacked Yes | 40c | 418.58$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 25c | 406$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.