TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Iran strike on Israel before November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$294,630
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$348,531

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,630 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 273 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes53c17,382$9,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,217.4316743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes79c15,772$12,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,262.553941%16 W · 23 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No70c15,327$10,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,732.831643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No8c12,002$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.722334.8%8 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+103.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes30c10,022$3,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,017.42015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes65c9,371$6,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,235.526423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes25c8,853$2,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,655.451127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes80c6,406$5,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.049815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3922…48ccbacked No0c5,451$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1820…e3f7backed No21c5,365$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.83850%19 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes72c5,086$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.195121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6da…2ad1backed No1c5,000$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No58c4,900$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.455743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76e4…6cecbacked No29c4,861$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c72…ee4cbacked No75c4,057$3,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,042.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick59cpaid-61.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No58c4,000$2,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.992941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc525…396fbacked No15c3,323$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.451353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f7d…4feabacked No52c3,199$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x210f…9d6abacked Yes55c3,098$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,382.742065%13 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+120.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No71c3,052$2,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.2510150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd91b…4e2bbacked No14c3,041$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd68…746abacked Yes76c2,942$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.665158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+36.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedd9…986bbacked Yes51c2,805$1,441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ba…a286backed Yes38c2,736$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,692.634030%12 W · 28 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked Yes71c2,511$1,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7197337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes33c2,465$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,650.098220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3c…62ebbacked No47c2,443$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.07850%4 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a8d…25e7backed No21c2,358$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf2…09febacked No22c2,273$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa84e…b655backed No23c2,172$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef7d…946dbacked No1c2,141$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No24c2,121$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.15749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked No29c2,110$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.59966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+60.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed No30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6002326.1%6 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a0d…38a1backed No58c1,988$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,143.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-62.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked Yes35c1,966$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.691330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72b5…8b54backed No66c1,897$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,258.162360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x831e…8db9backed Yes31c1,864$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.842737%10 W · 17 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+41%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6056…d119backed No48c1,838$878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$878.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ff…7beabacked No27c1,837$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes35c1,830$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.395747.4%27 W · 30 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c5…bd4ebacked No7c1,800$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1252321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-57%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes66c1,780$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.673633.3%12 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab7…c3eebacked No6c1,750$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd870…33b8backed No9c1,723$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf987…5d97backed No29c1,684$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ae…5bd2backed No20c1,605$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd28e…d68fbacked Yes49c1,600$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8224429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+34.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…4638backed No26c1,500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3952035%7 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-43.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3ef9…2e00backed No17c1,474$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe410…de46backed Yes43c1,467$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.582615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-52.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce82…03d3backed No22c1,368$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x087b…0de7backed No8c1,300$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No51c1,215$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.8540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65a0…ebecbacked No19c1,210$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdf…8cb7backed Yes34c1,185$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.02944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0975…a569backed No27c1,114$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5f…82b5backed No69c1,075$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-36.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No39c1,062$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.8931649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b22…7c5cbacked Yes24c1,000$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$758.691827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-25.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xbc01…19e7backed No20c999.6$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa1…545bbacked No20c978.52$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes74c962.29$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.814724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bfa…de14backed No21c945.9$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768e…8f5fbacked Yes34c907.17$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e7…1f5ebacked No8c849.18$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.971855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde4c…1f8abacked No20c845.48$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes26c769.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.82040%8 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12a1…c881backed No20c765$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e5…109bbacked Yes63c713.28$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.19850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No17c699.72$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ec…29cdbacked No64c695.18$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.222528%7 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9603…ab38backed No15c683.73$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1921…5efdbacked No19c669.35$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.38944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+62.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x006a…e170backed Yes63c663.43$419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.69560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No45c655.8$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.113458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0329…8129backed Yes33c650$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.5850%4 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+74.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd4b…75eabacked No7c647$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2960%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa892…d17bbacked No16c635.02$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47bc…c043backed Yes68c611.11$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x390c…0449backed No17c593.94$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3907…7549backed No17c592.59$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x666f…d5d4backed Yes56c580$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.1666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+137%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c3e…9854backed No18c555.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf6…7b90backed No11c513.16$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No21c501.19$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1962…ffb3backed No19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-70%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe834…fa95backed No67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.7560%0 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No71c499.99$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.997051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No18c488.96$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.688515.3%13 W · 72 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf772…36a6backed No56c486.83$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.371421.4%3 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-64.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x36f8…2538backed No20c479.43$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd92c…c62ebacked No21c474.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+154.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc010…89f3backed No20c467.01$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes46c444.37$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.221127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e91…b801backed Yes45c443.09$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.072759.3%16 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+69.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc31c…7830backed No77c426.3$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.39560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x144b…5dcfbacked Yes40c418.58$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.15837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked Yes25c406$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3066420.3%13 W · 51 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.