TailMyPicks
Market

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk before November?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$478,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$559,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $478,990 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes46c48,452$22,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,488.58812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick42cpaid-84%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2fb8…515dbacked Yes25c20,000$5,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,071.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No67c16,661$11,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,420.5624258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked No74c15,125$11,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,871.474562.2%28 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No49c14,987$7,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,587.944553.3%24 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-20%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe64f…44a5backed No75c14,953$11,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,733.224100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf9e…518ebacked No71c12,855$9,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,739.469962.6%62 W · 37 L+12.9wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No44c11,856$5,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,630.082334.8%8 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Yes11c9,093$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.192450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+12.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No78c8,986$7,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,982.198355.4%46 W · 37 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c8a…b45abacked No57c8,829$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,828.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c4c…cb39backed No45c6,500$2,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5752152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x60b4…6313backed No53c5,649$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,649.532100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes30c5,170$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.349413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x81f3…1043backed Yes2c5,153$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x919f…05c5backed Yes10c5,085$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x540b…e4e7backed Yes27c5,078$1,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,373.1850%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b6e…be2cbacked No71c4,825$3,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41f8…70b2backed Yes1c4,771$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed Yes32c4,696$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.211643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes8c4,509$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.523638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes20c4,427$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.72817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9dc…a6d8backed Yes57c4,370$2,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,507.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf61…dc4cbacked Yes2c4,275$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecdb…da79backed Yes51c3,984$2,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,033.2640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xece1…2b04backed Yes3c3,845$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes39c3,782$1,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,461.729932.3%32 W · 67 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes35c3,682$1,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,273.472015%3 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick33cpaid-76.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked No48c3,560$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,840.227821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c3,476$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb052…ff06backed Yes16c3,214$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.93224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick10cpaid+85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ff…fa28backed Yes8c3,191$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No67c3,162$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,041.653683.3%30 W · 6 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+30.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes29c3,157$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.281030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-56.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc79…0af6backed No69c2,906$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes48c2,803$1,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,355.4811647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eca…4780backed Yes48c2,705$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No44c2,215$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.863551.4%18 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+50.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x76e4…6cecbacked Yes15c2,036$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.0740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb357…ff05backed No50c2,010$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.29580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+53.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a70…52ccbacked No71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5803100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c9b…b444backed No75c1,918$1,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.213467.6%23 W · 11 L+6.8wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+36.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes35c1,785$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.2110812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b7d…66a3backed Yes32c1,731$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No53c1,695$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.3510625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab6d…b458backed No61c1,686$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfb8…37b6backed No51c1,591$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.111090%9 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick58cpaid+72.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x506f…e8bbbacked Yes8c1,579$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-61.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9f…aa81backed Yes50c1,500$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37d2…f302backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaf7…712cbacked No55c1,263$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.37850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+20.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No70c1,215$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.64425%11 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b2…b117backed Yes1c1,183$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7390…9160backed Yes3c1,169$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…1e98backed Yes63c1,157$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.4840%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes48c1,137$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.6760%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes8c1,100$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.62910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5554…498dbacked No49c1,020$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.05540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1856…1964backed Yes13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9059…a4fabacked Yes52c999.99$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.99520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-66.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7c0…6b87backed Yes31c998.99$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.69520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa102…36d9backed No73c945$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes12c905.77$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1082330.4%7 W · 16 L-5.1wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-57.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbaec…665bbacked Yes34c900$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30670%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda92…264dbacked No46c884.75$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick48cpaid+65.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a68…f07cbacked Yes24c868.06$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-64.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0fd…4032backed No59c865.08$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.121283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.25per pick59cpaid+48.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed No69c819.77$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes44c799.98$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.992634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x004d…665bbacked No78c778.69$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.811080%8 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0271…57e5backed Yes2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8178…32d8backed Yes51c733.39$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.933342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-25.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcfc7…69ebbacked Yes15c729.99$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x039e…c5e0backed Yes28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-21.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8def…f1f8backed Yes1c705.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92c1…adc5backed Yes10c700.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70175.9%1 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick20cpaid-90.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7f9…27fbbacked Yes1c693.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182b…f022backed No55c687.55$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.951136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce10…902bbacked Yes2c681.82$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb35b…fd83backed Yes45c667.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-73.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1091…49c6backed Yes11c657.45$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf54…676abacked Yes12c657.16$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7556…2be1backed Yes54c642.5$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.15425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-57.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14b…b944backed Yes40c584.02$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.371118.2%2 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.27per pick45cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6ed…ddadbacked No69c581.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8272…14bbbacked Yes35c558.52$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1590%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes12c553.84$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.46714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes2c538.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x956c…fdb8backed No52c523.68$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.3713100%13 W · 0 L+5.1wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+80.7%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2d78…2404backed Yes18c513.31$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.88520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+300%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68fd…9d55backed No59c512.12$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7c…e622backed Yes51c499.99$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf46e…5d0abacked Yes22c490.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed No77c485.12$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.133565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes11c440.61$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No59c402.07$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.6514121.3%30 W · 111 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…ced9backed Yes11c400$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffc…388bbacked Yes24c392.17$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73e1…072cbacked No78c384.83$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.831250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.