Lol · resolved market
IEM Cologne: FaZe vs. Aurora
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41219d8df44498de49c64c164a309b6bf394a811d40b27e01c6423df9542dfda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FaZeof FaZe, Aurora
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e71…b27ebacked Aurora | 39c | 29,249$11,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,399.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked FaZe | 61c | 21,628$13,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,434.96 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -13.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Aurora | 0c | 9,231$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Aurora | 38c | 4,537$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.85 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x178e…76f7backed FaZe | 61c | 3,880$2,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.2 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4887…584dbacked Aurora | 40c | 3,619$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Aurora | 13c | 2,917$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.15 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…cb47backed FaZe | 62c | 2,005$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.9 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed FaZe | 61c | 1,854$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.06 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed FaZe | 61c | 1,738$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.08 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 38c | 1,700$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1,598 | 42.4%677 W · 921 L | -17.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed FaZe | 61c | 1,510$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.45 | 435 | 39.5%172 W · 263 L | -24.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed Aurora | 10c | 1,501$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed FaZe | 63c | 1,500$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 539 | 54.7%295 W · 244 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…5ec5backed FaZe | 61c | 1,418$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.47 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…4999backed Aurora | 40c | 1,378$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed FaZe | 64c | 1,259$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.55 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Aurora | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Aurora | 37c | 1,100$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed FaZe | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…61bcbacked FaZe | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…e782backed FaZe | 68c | 770.15$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked FaZe | 63c | 750.2$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.57 | 924 | 50.9%470 W · 454 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked FaZe | 62c | 644.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora | 22c | 557.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 297 | 61.6%183 W · 114 L | -12.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked FaZe | 61c | 503$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.87 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked FaZe | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Aurora | 39c | 450$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed FaZe | 63c | 402$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…68a4backed Aurora | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Aurora | 11c | 370$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 102 | 28.4%29 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed FaZe | 61c | 328$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 306 | 61.1%187 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked FaZe | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa856…3964backed FaZe | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7703…34b9backed FaZe | 61c | 327.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked FaZe | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4c…a5f0backed FaZe | 61c | 277.05$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Aurora | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 257 | 52.1%134 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…0de7backed Aurora | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf0…562abacked FaZe | 76c | 245.53$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed FaZe | 63c | 236.25$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…93acbacked FaZe | 65c | 230.77$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Aurora | 39c | 223.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.07 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Aurora | 36c | 222$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed FaZe | 63c | 210$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Aurora | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked FaZe | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf671…3dd7backed FaZe | 63c | 200$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 433 | 48.7%211 W · 222 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ea…f625backed FaZe | 67c | 198.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.53 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed FaZe | 61c | 154.1$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked FaZe | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 1,356 | 51.1%693 W · 663 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked FaZe | 68c | 132.7$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb4…7a49backed FaZe | 61c | 131.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebce…f37bbacked Aurora | 25c | 119.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed FaZe | 63c | 115.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…e484backed Aurora | 35c | 112.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3de…eea7backed FaZe | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…ffb8backed FaZe | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked FaZe | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed FaZe | 68c | 92.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 205 | 63.9%131 W · 74 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed FaZe | 72c | 80.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked FaZe | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 174 | 66.7%116 W · 58 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7314…9073backed FaZe | 74c | 67.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed FaZe | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…cd8ebacked FaZe | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Aurora | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 441 | 28.1%124 W · 317 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aed…e4f4backed FaZe | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…096ebacked FaZe | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FaZe | 70c | 30.28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 850 | 46%391 W · 459 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…6ce2backed Aurora | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x508e…a99ebacked FaZe | 64c | 27.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a6…aaa2backed FaZe | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed FaZe | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed FaZe | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b8…5d35backed FaZe | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.