TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$956,469
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,034,196

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $956,469 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x074b…268bbacked Yes63c107,045$67,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,606.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x561d…4912backed No37c107,045$39,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,606.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes65c50,002$32,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,4508330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Yes73c45,495$32,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,503.041275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes65c31,751$20,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,116.331442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes58c30,305$17,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,791.2818431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No37c17,033$6,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,269.9650633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa84b…5055backed Yes66c16,935$11,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,676.31580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes63c15,000$9,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,511.332639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No28c13,207$3,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.136434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed No7c13,046$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.554734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No25c12,856$3,248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,247.571799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef19…91e7backed Yes67c11,220$7,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,668.631428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-40.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed No8c10,508$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.85425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-61.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes64c9,886$6,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,558.864930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No26c8,489$2,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.178836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes41c7,483$3,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,409.628334.9%29 W · 54 L+8.7wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes43c7,382$3,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,204.413831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked Yes65c7,099$4,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes61c7,054$4,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,731.671947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf743…ac84backed Yes68c6,445$4,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,086.68250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes59c6,414$3,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,611.383754.1%20 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No47c5,422$2,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,548.916541.5%27 W · 38 L+8.8wins+0.13per pick28cpaid+68.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x766f…9e74backed Yes33c5,188$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,463.183063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Yes68c5,145$3,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.041346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa933…6077backed Yes62c5,096$3,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,911.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f77…9d8ebacked Yes18c5,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.99540%2 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick10cpaid+162.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes66c4,811$3,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,651.47250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes66c4,748$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.344544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No21c4,696$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.076222.6%14 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No31c4,654$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.677126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No32c4,526$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.42832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No33c4,371$1,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,434.61118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-64.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes66c4,367$2,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.834427.3%12 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes28c4,100$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,941.983920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a65…acf4backed No27c4,022$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10080%0 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes64c4,000$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.511050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No16c3,726$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.315440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Yes32c3,553$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,400.681233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3a…6cd3backed Yes65c3,462$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.012100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+155.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes35c3,395$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.4813150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes66c3,394$2,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.51475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf368…9d9bbacked No46c3,350$1,535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,534.9840%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6fa9…aab1backed Yes67c3,289$2,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.27966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+67.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No76c3,002$2,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,288.54875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+69.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa93c…17b2backed Yes69c2,899$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.733745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No36c2,621$944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$944.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes63c2,572$1,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.595040%20 W · 30 L+4.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+0.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No32c2,434$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.689442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7245…f1c3backed Yes64c2,327$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+111.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2863…0e3ebacked No75c2,122$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99ec…f99ebacked No33c2,114$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-84.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No56c2,053$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.272231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked Yes65c2,000$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.753046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes66c1,978$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.911968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+52.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes31c1,946$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.846622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No32c1,931$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.874540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed No24c1,900$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.111442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a2d…f033backed Yes67c1,860$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.91625%4 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes77c1,853$1,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.572927.6%8 W · 21 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick43cpaid-55.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0062…841bbacked No33c1,800$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb88…0e56backed Yes32c1,800$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,217.382227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No31c1,538$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.249231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2137…0677backed No25c1,534$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.397135.2%25 W · 46 L+7.0wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+28.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Yes56c1,530$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No11c1,501$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6510232.4%33 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82b5…c856backed No34c1,500$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9554…2d01backed Yes67c1,490$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.79450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked No37c1,424$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.17260%0 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Yes72c1,375$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.381030%3 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No14c1,350$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1892714.8%4 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes53c1,311$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.2219031.1%59 W · 131 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf215…9114backed No37c1,294$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.56837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No35c1,280$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.9550%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37ec…b881backed No37c1,234$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.6130%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No19c1,186$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.03744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed No47c1,164$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.1610244.1%45 W · 57 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9ce…d77dbacked Yes62c1,160$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ded…ba6cbacked No17c1,100$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No33c1,056$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.5336538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x08e2…71b1backed Yes64c1,034$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.0410037%37 W · 63 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff21…f489backed Yes42c1,018$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.212524%6 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca5f…322abacked Yes68c1,000$679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes67c1,000$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.742857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed No40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502711.1%3 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e05…f435backed Yes65c900$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd58e…2dbfbacked No38c884.96$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.2850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed No39c880.34$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.143619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cab…6817backed Yes74c877$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.25933.3%3 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+152.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d42…9b05backed Yes69c873.77$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes69c869.89$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.67944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid-24.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes67c855.58$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.83650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes77c850.21$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.211040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5bf…7851backed No46c846.04$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ca2…90a1backed No29c835.35$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f2…a943backed No31c817.71$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x09a5…b5c3backed Yes66c800$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2723100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+121.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6485…be05backed Yes66c799.99$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.