Movies · resolved market
Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4fcec6c3654c545c23b12f1d5e0b9235a5aeebb03907987b9608cf6b63d909bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $238,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4960…7a11backed Yes | 3c | 30,963$992 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$991.61 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 29,642$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.18 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 2c | 10,386$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.07 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 1c | 9,316$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.99 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 9,200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…0c1dbacked Yes | 4c | 8,737$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 6c | 6,354$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.36 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed Yes | 3c | 5,766$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06f…1b23backed Yes | 1c | 5,300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…1afcbacked Yes | 1c | 5,204$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.93 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,956$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 1c | 4,911$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Yes | 5c | 4,593$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 1c | 4,350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 3c | 3,947$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 5c | 3,509$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.81 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 3c | 3,387$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 2c | 3,290$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0b…29e9backed Yes | 2c | 3,150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd58e…2dbfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 2c | 2,977$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,903$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…2d11backed Yes | 1c | 2,751$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ccb5backed Yes | 3c | 2,697$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,357$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8360…802cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,276$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…5ecebacked Yes | 5c | 2,133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…a9d8backed Yes | 2c | 2,102$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…323cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,845$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…d310backed Yes | 12c | 1,619$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.77 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,545$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…521cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,496$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 4c | 1,495$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.31 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad4f…12a3backed Yes | 7c | 1,466$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 1,364$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 4c | 1,316$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,291$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,223$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ec…f99ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…9114backed Yes | 1c | 1,193$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…85bcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,097$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 4c | 1,032$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 6c | 1,015$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.37 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 1c | 1,010$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 2c | 999.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff0…a0edbacked Yes | 1c | 946.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 4c | 937.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 1c | 936.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…86e9backed Yes | 1c | 926.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8f…b7fdbacked Yes | 2c | 899.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…bf70backed Yes | 4c | 859.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes | 6c | 849.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb78…11febacked Yes | 1c | 824.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 2c | 819.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 1c | 807$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…905ebacked Yes | 1c | 801.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 2c | 772.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…3dcabacked Yes | 3c | 757.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 732.89$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2158…7941backed Yes | 2c | 692.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 6c | 675$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…7038backed Yes | 4c | 551.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…c448backed Yes | 3c | 546.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb1…b398backed Yes | 4c | 516.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 4c | 420$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc612…5613backed Yes | 3c | 391.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 344$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 6c | 255$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6b…9579backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Challengers" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "September" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Sing Sing" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.