Movies · resolved market
Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4278b4ae82832f01f735a8fa14c4febdb208fd9a5190a9143ca07e52ca684a2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $276,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $146,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $276,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 19,030$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 1c | 16,589$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 0c | 12,306$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 1c | 9,067$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,820$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 46 | 2.2%1 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x560b…bb54backed Yes | 1c | 7,773$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 1cpaid | +1,263.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 0c | 7,155$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772a…c9f3backed Yes | 1c | 6,380$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 33 | 0%0 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x432a…98ccbacked Yes | 0c | 4,310$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,019$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 3,934$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 12cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Yes | 1c | 3,802$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 1c | 3,697$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 0c | 3,511$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 3,386$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 2,629$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…6120backed Yes | 1c | 2,344$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,315$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…f484backed Yes | 1c | 2,309$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1936…e89cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,146$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…d30dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,895$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e38…acedbacked Yes | 1c | 1,597$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…5ecebacked Yes | 1c | 1,507$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 1c | 1,132$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…6717backed Yes | 1c | 1,076$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7eb…e768backed Yes | 1c | 1,013$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…78f0backed Yes | 1c | 882.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 4c | 614.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Substance" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Complete Unknown" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Challengers" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Conclave" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Dune: Part Two" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Emilia Pérez" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "I'm Still Here" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nickel Boys" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Nosferatu" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "September" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Sing Sing" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Wicked" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.